# St Barts Forums > Storm Tracker >  >  Hurricane Beryl

## BBT

*Invest 95-L Located Halfway Between The Lesser Antilles & The West Coast Of Africa Is Likely To Develop Into A Tropical Depression Or A Tropical Storm Over The Next Day Or So; Tropical Development Remains Somewhat Possible Late This Week & This Weekend Halfway Between Bermuda & The US East Coast*


*Invest 95-L Located Halfway Between The Lesser Antilles & The West Coast Of Africa Near 10.5 North Latitude, 39.5 West Longitude:* Satellite imagery indicates that the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with Invest 95-L is not only fairly well organized, but is also maintaining itself with the convection continuously redeveloping over the same area very near the low pressure center. In addition, the overall look of Invest 95-L continues to improve and it appears that this system is very close to tropical depression status and I expect to see an upgrade within the next 12-18 hours.
An analysis of environmental conditions indicate that the wind shear values around Invest 95-L continues to be quite favorable for development with 10 knots or less of wind shear impacting this system. Further west, however, there is a ribbon of very strong wind shear located west of 50 West Longitude and it is likely that Invest 95-L will begin to encounter this stronger wind shear by about Sunday. So, even though development into a tropical depression or a tropical storm is likely over the next couple of days, any development would be quickly ended by about Sunday as Invest 95-L encounters these unfavorable environmental conditions.
The global model guidance all seem to agree that if we are going to see Invest 95-L become a tropical depression or a tropical storm, it'll happen between today and Saturday. After Saturday, all of the model guidance seems to agree on weakening of this system as it encounters the unfavorable environmental conditions.
In addition, the global model guidance forecasts that this system will be a trough of low pressure that produces fairly widespread shower and thunderstorm activity and locally gusty winds to the central and northern Lesser Antilles on Sunday night and then the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Monday.
The track guidance are in consensus with forecasting a general west-northwest track over the next several days which would bring this system across the central and northern Lesser Antilles on Sunday night. A large number of the intensity guidance members do forecast Invest 95-L to still be a tropical storm by the time it reaches the central and northern Lesser Antilles on Sunday night. This still looks unrealistic given the very unfavorable conditions found west of 50 West Longitude.
*Here Are My Thoughts:* Given how well organized Invest 95-L and factoring in the favorable environmental conditions it is in, *I think that there is at least a 80-90 percent chance that Invest 95-L will become a tropical depression or a tropical storm between later today and Saturday.*
All indications point towards that Invest 95-L will likely continue to organize and develop today through Friday into possibly even part of Saturday. This says to me that it is very likely that Invest 95-L will become a tropical depression and then a tropical storm over the next 1 to 2 days.
Beyond Saturday, it is expected that this system will begin to weaken as it approaches the Lesser Antilles and no longer be a tropical cyclone, but just a trough of low pressure by the time it moves across the central and northern Lesser Antilles on Sunday night. As I have already mentioned, widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely across the central and northern Lesser Antilles on Sunday night and then across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Monday.
As I mentioned yesterday, there is one caveat to this and that is the model guidance is forecasting that even though there will be increasing wind shear by the time Invest 95-L reaches the Lesser Antilles, there will also be a region of very warm and humid air that could sustain and even intensify the thunderstorm activity. This could, in theory, help to sustain this system and maintain it as a tropical storm even in the face of increasing wind shear. This is what the intensity guidance may be seeing and why they are keeping it as a tropical storm even as it passes through the northern Lesser Antilles. At this point, I think that we will see this system fall apart quickly as it approaches and moves through the central and northern Lesser Antilles, but it is a scenario to watch out for.
We will be keeping a close eye on Invest 95-L and will have updates for you. We will let you know the instance it becomes a tropical depression or tropical storm.
*Invest 95-L Information:*


*Model Track Forecast:*


*Satellite Imagery:*



*Tropical Development Remains Somewhat Possible Late This Week & This Weekend Halfway Between Bermuda & The US East Coast:* A disorganized trough of low pressure is located to the southwest of Bermuda this morning. This trough is producing just a scattering of shower and thunderstorm activity with no areas of concentrated or persistent convection noted.
Development into a tropical depression remains possible as we get into Friday and Saturday, however, the model consensus seems to be trending towards much weaker development. The exception seems to be the UKMET model which is forecasting this system to begin developing on Saturday when its just offshore of the North Carolina coast. In addition, the UKMET model forecasts this system to peak at about a 60 mph tropical storm when it's about 250-300 miles offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast early next week.
Finally, none of the model guidance are forecasting this system to make landfall and they all forecast a track that keeps it a couple of hundred miles offshore from North Carolina to New England this weekend.
*Here Are My Thoughts:* I think that if we are going to see tropical development from this system, it probably wont happen until this weekend when it's passing well east of North Carolina and well southeast of New England. The reason why this system may wait to develop is that the environmental conditions may be most favorable when the low pressure system is parallel with the upper level wind flow ahead of a frontal boundary leading to a very low wind shear environment. At this point, I think the chances for development of this system are low, but it is something that will be monitored anyways over the next few days.


*The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday Morning or sooner if conditions warrant.*


*If you have questions regarding this discussion, do not hesitate to contact me at* *rlightbown@crownweather.com.*

*Disclaimer:* All forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster. However, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user.

----------


## cec1

Thanks, Bob, for keeping this important topic alive.  I also can report -- with regard to summer planning -- that I have received a message from chris83 saying that he has been unable to access the Forum for several days (as many others experienced, as well), and he wanted us to know that ". . . the odds are up for a slow season."

Arriving SBH tomorrow . . . appreciate knowing the immediate outlook -- and for remainder of the hurricane season.  Hope to see you soon!

----------


## BBT

*Tropical Depression #2 Has Formed Over The Central Tropical Atlantic, But Is Expected To Weaken Before Reaching The Lesser Antilles Later This Weekend; Remnants Of Tropical Depression #2 Will Still Bring Widespread Showers & Thunderstorms & Gusty Winds To The Central & Northern Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico & Hispaniola From Sunday Through Monday*


*Tropical Depression #2:*
*11 am EDT/10 am CDT Statistics:*
*Location:* 10.2 North Latitude, 41.4 West Longitude or about 1385 miles to the east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles.
*Maximum Winds:* 35 mph.
*Minimum Central Pressure:* 1009 Millibars or 29.80 Inches.
*Forward Movement:* West at a forward speed of 16 mph.
As expected, the robust low pressure system, designated Invest 95-L, has been upgraded to a tropical depression by the National Hurricane Center. Satellite imagery late this morning indicates that the depression continues to be well organized, but there is persistent deep convection occurring near the low pressure center.
The depression is expected to push west to west-northwestward within a favorable wind shear environment for the next 2 to 3 days or so. Because of this, it is very likely that this system will strengthen into at least a low end tropical storm by Friday and maintain tropical storm status through Saturday. Beyond Saturday, the depression is expected to encounter strong west to southwest wind shear and weakening into a vigorous tropical wave looks likely by Sunday before it reaches the Lesser Antilles.
Even though this system is expected to be no longer a tropical cyclone when it reaches the Lesser Antilles, it will still likely be a vigorous tropical wave that will produce heavy showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds from Sunday through Monday.
*Everyone Across The Central & Northern Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico & Hispaniola:* Widespread showers and thunderstorms capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will impact the central and northern Lesser Antilles from Sunday afternoon to Monday morning. This squally weather will spread across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola by Monday with inclement weather expected all day Monday.
We are keeping a close eye on Tropical Depression #2 and will continue to have updates for you as conditions warrant.
*The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday Morning or sooner if conditions warrant.*


*Model Track Forecast For TD #2:*


*Model Intensity Forecast For TD #2:*

----------


## BBT

> Thanks, Bob, for keeping this important topic alive.  I also can report -- with regard to summer planning -- that I have received a message from chris83 saying that he has been unable to access the Forum for several days (as many others experienced, as well), and he wanted us to know that ". . . the odds are up for a slow season."
> 
> Arriving SBH tomorrow . . . appreciate knowing the immediate outlook -- and for remainder of the hurricane season.  Hope to see you soon!



Look forward to it as always

----------


## BBT

TS now has a name Beryl

----------


## BBT

Beryl has strengthened today much more than what was expected. This type of strengthening is not uncommon for small tropical cyclones like Beryl, but it was unexpected. As of late this afternoon, Beryl has strengthened to at least a 50 mph tropical storm and satellite imagery indicates that the storm has developed a well defined mid-level eye. Because the mid-level eye that has developed, it is quite possible that the storm is stronger than the advertised 50 mph maximum winds.
The forecast intensity of Beryl is one that has a very high degree of uncertainty with it. Beryl has been able to isolate itself from the dry, dusty air that is surrounding the storm and thus has been able to moisten up the atmosphere around it. At the same time this is happening, the wind shear values around Beryl remain low with 10 knots or less of shear present. This low wind shear environment is expected to persist through Friday and because of this, additional strengthening is likely. This means that Beryl has the chance to become a hurricane before stronger south to southwesterly wind shear begins to impact the storm this weekend.
All of the global model guidance members forecast that Beryl should weaken enough this weekend to open up into a vigorous tropical wave by Sunday. This forecast of this much weakening, however, now is in question and it is possible that Beryl could still be a tropical storm, albeit a weakening one, when it reaches the central and northern Lesser Antilles later Sunday.
*For Everyone Across The Central & Northern Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico & Hispaniola:* Because of the uncertainty as to whether Beryl will still be a tropical storm or not when it reaches the central and northern Lesser Antilles on Sunday, all interests across the central and northern Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of this storm.
At this point, I'm still forecasting this system to be a vigorous tropical wave when it reaches the Lesser Antilles late this weekend. Because of this, I'm forecasting widespread showers and thunderstorms capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to impact the central and northern Lesser Antilles from Sunday afternoon to Monday morning. This includes the islands of Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe, Antigua, St. Martin, Anguilla and all of the islands in-between.
This squally weather will spread across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola by Monday with inclement weather expected all day Monday.
We are keeping a close eye on Tropical Storm Beryl and will continue to have updates for you as conditions warrant.
*The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday Morning or sooner if conditions warrant.*

----------


## cec1

I love the fact that you've taken over this reporting, Bob . . . so valuable to read!

----------


## BBT

> I love the fact that you've taken over this reporting, Bob . . . so valuable to read!



Thanks. Waiting on my crown update for this am. Still looks like the shear will knock down the winds and we will have a much needed rain event. Safe travels today.

----------


## soyabeans

hope it passes quickly, we arrive (or try to) on Tuesday

----------


## didier

> hope it passes quickly, we arrive (or try to) on Tuesday



no worries, it will pass to the south of us and looks like will be downgraded to a storm by sunday.  you are doing a great job bob!

----------


## soyabeans

thanks Diana, still keeping my fingers crossed

----------


## BBT



----------


## BBT

*Beryl Has Become A Hurricane & Has The Potential To Bring Tropical Storm Conditions To The Central Lesser Antilles On Sunday Night; Invest 96-L Has The Potential To Become A Tropical Storm Near The North Carolina Coast Between Sunday & Tuesday & All Interests Along The North Carolina & South Carolina Coasts Should Closely Monitor The Progress Of Invest 96-L*


*Hurricane Beryl:*
*5 am EDT/4 am CDT Statistics:*
*Location:* 10.6 North Latitude, 45.1 West Longitude or about 1140 miles to the east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles.
*Maximum Winds:* 75 mph.
*Minimum Central Pressure:* 995 Millibars or 29.39 Inches.
*Forward Movement:* West at a forward speed of 14 mph.
Beryl continues to strengthen this morning with deep convection noted around the core of the storm. In addition, satellite imagery indicates that an eye has popped out from time to time over the past 12 hours or so. Based on the satellite presentation, it appears that Beryl is a very tiny hurricane with 75 mph winds this morning.
The wind shear values around Beryl remain very low and this favorable environment is likely to cause Beryl to continue strengthening today. In fact, it is not out of the realm of possibilities that Beryl could strengthen to Category 2 intensity before the wind shear begins to increase around the storm by late Saturday. Once the increasing westerly wind shear impacts Beryl, the storm is likely to weaken. How much it weakens remains to be seen, but the latest model guidance suite, including the GFS and UKMET models, now forecast Beryl to still be a tropical storm when it moves through the central Lesser Antilles on Sunday night. Given the very small size of Beryl, rapid weakening is quite possible once the unfavorable environmental conditions impacts the storm. On the other hand, the overall atmosphere may still be very humid and unstable as the storm approaches the Lesser Antilles and thus it may be able to maintain some of its strength in the face of increasing wind shear.
*For Everyone Across The Central Lesser Antilles From St. Lucia To Antigua:* Because of the uncertainty as to whether Beryl will still be a tropical storm or not when it reaches the central Lesser Antilles on Sunday, I urge everyone across the central Lesser Antilles to closely monitor the progress of this storm.
At this point, I think that there is increasing evidence in the data that suggests Beryl will still be a tropical storm when it reaches the Lesser Antilles on Sunday night.
Because of this, I'm forecasting tropical storm conditions with wind gusts of up to 60-65 mph along with heavy rain bands and very rough seas to impact the islands of St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe and possibly Antigua starting late Sunday afternoon and continuing through Sunday night before ending on Monday morning.
The squally weather associated with a weakening Beryl is forecast to impact parts of the Virgin Islands, parts of Puerto Rico and parts of Hispaniola on Monday.
We are keeping a very close eye on the progress of Beryl and will continue to have updates for you as conditions warrant.


*Model Track Forecast For Beryl:*


*Model Intensity Forecast For Beryl:*

*Satellite Imagery Of Beryl:*



*Invest 96-L Located About Halfway Between The Southeastern United States & Bermuda:* We are watching Invest 96-L with an increasing amount of interest as there is the possibility that it could develop into a tropical storm very near the North Carolina coast late this weekend or early next week.
Currently, Invest 96-L is a well-defined low pressure system that is located about halfway between the southeastern United States and Bermuda. Satellite imagery indicates that there is disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity occurring offshore of the US Southeast coast. The environmental conditions around this system are favorable for development and the burst of deeper convection that is occurring about 450 miles due east of Jacksonville, Florida will be monitored for persistence and organization.
*The Model Guidance* has trended both much stronger with the intensity of Invest 96-L and much closer to the North Carolina coast as compared to forecasts 24 hours ago.
The GFS model guidance forecasts this system to become a tropical storm by Monday or Tuesday very near the coast of southeastern North Carolina. From there, the GFS model forecasts Invest 96-L to move very close to, if not right over the outer banks of North Carolina as a hurricane on Wednesday. After that, the GFS model guidance forecasts a northeasterly track taking this system very near Cape Cod, Massachusetts on Thursday and into eastern Maine next Friday.
The Canadian model guidance is further offshore of the North Carolina coast on Sunday and Monday, but still forecasts it to become a tropical storm.
The European model guidance waits to develop Invest 96-L into a tropical storm until about Wednesday when its offshore of the North Carolina coast. From there, the European model forecasts a northeasterly track and brings this system into eastern Nova Scotia as a tropical storm next Friday.
The UKMET model guidance is actually closer to the GFS model in both track and intensity than the European model. The UKMET model forecasts Invest 96-L to become a tropical storm by Monday and forecasts it to move very near the outer banks of North Carolina on Tuesday. From there, the UKMET model forecasts this system to move to the northeast and east-northeast and pass offshore of southeastern New England around Wednesday as a hurricane.
The GFS ensemble model guidance members have two model clusters with the track of Invest 96-L. The first model cluster brings the system right across eastern North Carolina and the outer banks of North Carolina on about Wednesday. The second model cluster keeps the system about 250-300 miles offshore of the North Carolina coast.
*Here Are My Thoughts:* Needless to say, the Tropical Atlantic has been full of surprises over the last couple of days with both Invest 96-L and also Beryl.
I think that it is very likely that Invest 96-L will develop into first a tropical depression and then a tropical storm by about the Sunday to Monday time frame. *I would put the chances of this occurring at about 90-95 percent.*
Invest 96-L could end up surprising many as the environmental conditions will be favorable for strengthening as it moves slowly over the Gulf Stream ocean waters this weekend into the first half of next week. In fact, some of the intensity guidance forecast that this system will be a hurricane by about Tuesday.
What is concerning is that this system may move very close to, if not right over the outer banks of North Carolina or extreme eastern North Carolina late Tuesday or during the day on Wednesday. So, if the intensity guidance is correct, then this system may be a hurricane at that point. How close this system gets to the North Carolina coast is something that needs to be watched very closely, especially with the westward trends in all of the model guidance.
*Everyone along the North Carolina and South Carolina coasts* need to closely monitor the progress of this system throughout this coming weekend as the very real potential is there for at least a tropical storm to be on your doorstep come about Tuesday. In addition, it wouldn't be a bad idea for those of you in *southeastern New England (Southeast Massachusetts, Cape Cod, Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard) and Nova Scotia* to also keep an eye on this system.
*Invest 96-L Information:*


*Model Track Forecast:*


*Satellite Imagery:*



*The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Saturday Morning or sooner if conditions warrant.*

----------


## BBT

Beryl is now projected to have Cat 2 winds from Sat PM to Sunday AM before hitting wind shear

----------


## andynap

Sorry Bob but I figured you were island enjoying today.

----------


## BBT

> Sorry Bob but I figured you were island enjoying today.



Sitting by the pool enjoying the breeze and a nice cigar rum in hand. Hard to beat the view and weather. If the lag long projections are correct, and they never are the closest the eye would come is approx 130Miles south of Gustavia

----------


## jeffbg

Guys,  for those of us on the island, this means what?  Lots rain? More than lots of rain? Little drama at all?

----------


## KevinS

> Guys,  for those of us on the island, this means what?  Lots rain? More than lots of rain? Little drama at all?



It appears to mean rain on Sunday/Monday, how much is unclear.  It appears to mean wind, but only a 10-20% chance of Tropical Storm Force (39mph+) wind, hitting the island on Sunday evening.  At this point, I don't see a lot of drama, just some wind and some rain.

If you plan on dining out, Sunday might be a good night to dine at an enclosed restaurant such as L'Isola, Vietnam, or Creperie. 

Tropical Storm Force Wind Probabilities - Look straight to the right from the words Puerto Rico, and that little clump of islands is St Barth, St Maarten, and Anguilla:


Wind Arrival Times - St Barth is right under the M in Sun 8 PM:


The above information is the latest from the National Hurricane Center as of this time.  The NHC is where all detailed information flows from - everything else is an interpretation of the NHC information or a reaction to it*.  You can find updates at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Another good source is Weather Underground.  https://www.wunderground.com/hurrica...l?map=forecast

When you look at the information, keep in mind that a line on a map is just that, and that tropical cyclones can extend out hundreds of miles on each side of the line.

*The computer models aren't created by the NHC, but I don't know a better source where that information is consolidated.

----------


## andynap



----------


## BBT

*Issued: Saturday Morning, July 7, 2018*

*Beryl Is Expected To Bring Tropical Storm Conditions To The Southern Leeward Islands & Northern Windward Islands From Sunday Afternoon To Monday Morning; Tropical Depression #3 Will Meander Off Of The North Carolina Coast As A Tropical Storm For The Next Few Days*


*Hurricane Beryl:*
*8 am EDT/7 am CDT Statistics:*
*Location:* 11.7 North Latitude, 50.3 West Longitude or about 780 miles to the east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles.
*Maximum Winds:* 75 mph.
*Minimum Central Pressure:* 995 Millibars or 29.39 Inches.
*Forward Movement:* West-Northwest at a forward speed of 14 mph.
Beryl is still a very tiny storm this morning. Satellite imagery indicates that most of the convection occurring with Beryl is to the south of the center and that the storm may be starting to be impacted by more unfavorable environmental conditions. In fact, I think that Beryl is no longer a hurricane and probably is now a weakening tropical storm. Beryl is expected to encounter even greater unfavorable conditions as there will be a large increase in southwesterly wind shear by Sunday as the storm approaches the Lesser Antilles. Steady and possibly rapid weakening is expected during Sunday and while I think that Beryl will probably still be a tropical storm when it moves across the Lesser Antilles on Sunday night, there's the very real possibility that it will have weakened into a tropical wave by then.
Given that Beryl is expected to continue moving to the west-northwest on the south side of a ridge of high pressure to its north, it appears the center of the storm will move right across the islands of Martinique and Dominica on Sunday night before it moves into the eastern Caribbean on Monday. It is expected that Beryl will weaken and become a vigorous tropical wave as it moves through the eastern Caribbean and towards Hispaniola on Monday nightand Tuesday.
Beyond this, the model guidance insists that the energy and moisture from Beryl will be pulled northwestward into the Bahamas by Tuesday night and Wednesday which would bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to much of the Bahamas throughout Tuesday night and Wednesday. The GFS, European and UKMET model guidance indicate that the system will remain a open wave or trough of low pressure and not try to redevelop into a tropical cyclone when it reaches the Bahamas. On the other hand, the Canadian model guidance forecasts regeneration into a tropical storm by Wednesday night as the system moves into the northern Bahamas. At this point, I'm leaning towards the scenario of no regeneration with the remnants of Beryl bringing squally weather to much of the Bahamas on Tuesday night and Wednesday. With that said, this system will still be watched very closely for signs of regeneration once it moves into the Bahamas towards the middle part of next week.
*For Everyone Across The Southern Leeward Islands & Northern Windward Islands From St. Lucia To Antigua:* Tropical storm conditions with wind gusts of up to 60 mph are expected to impact the islands of St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica and Guadeloupe starting late Sunday afternoon and continuing through Sunday night before ending on Monday morning.
In addition to this, Beryl is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts across the southern Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands, including Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, St. Lucia, and Barbados from midday Sunday to Monday morning.
It should be noted that even if Beryl weakens into a tropical wave before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, it will still produce squally weather with up to tropical storm conditions across the southern Leeward Islands and the northern Windward Islands from late Sunday to Monday morning.
The squally weather associated with a weakening Beryl is forecast to impact parts of Hispaniola on Monday night and Tuesday and then much of the Bahamas from Tuesday through Wednesday.


*Model Track Forecast For Beryl:*


*Model Intensity Forecast For Beryl:*

*Satellite Imagery Of Beryl:*

----------


## BBT

Tiny Hurricane Beryl suffered a significant disruption to its core on Saturday morning, resulting in the collapse of its eyewall and the loss of most of its heavy thunderstorms. Satellite images on Saturday morning showed Beryls circulation center was exposed to view, with just one clump of heavy thunderstorms on the southeast side of the center. Thats the classic appearance of a storm undergoing wind shear, and it is likely that strong mid- to upper-level winds out of the northwest have been driving dry air into Beryls circulation, disrupting the storm. The 8 am EDT Saturday SHIPS model run diagnosed a modest increase in wind shear to 10 knots, but with a small storm like Beryl, it doesnt take much wind shear to cause a significant disruption--if the stronger winds tearing at the storm are advecting in dry air. The SHIPS model also diagnosed drier air surrounding the storm--an average mid-level relative humidity of 55%, a signature of the dryer air to Beryls north that was able to infiltrate its core. Beryls track did wobble more to the west-northwest overnight, bringing the storm closer to the dry air to its north, which may have aided in the dry air intrusion.

----------


## KevinS

The last update from Météo France predicts that conditions will deteriorate on Sunday evening, and that the storm will continue until Tuesday morning.  Winds of 50-60 km/h (31-37 mph), gusting to 70-80 km/h (43-50 mph) are forecast.

----------


## KevinS

There's not much change in the forecasts.  The arrival time of the strongest winds has been pushed out a bit, but SBH is still on the outer edge of the area with a forecast 5-10% probability of receiving Tropical Storm Force winds.  It will still be windy and wet though.

----------


## BBT

*Beryl Is Expected To Bring Tropical Storm Conditions To Dominica & Guadeloupe Tonight; Tropical Storm Chris Is Likely To Strengthen Into A Hurricane While It Meanders Off Of The North Carolina Coast For The Next Few Days; Those Of You In Eastern New England, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia & Newfoundland Should Keep Close Tabs On The Forecast Track Of Chris*


*Tropical Storm Beryl:*
*8 am EDT/7 am CDT Statistics:*
*Location:* 14.0 North Latitude, 56.8 West Longitude or about 285 miles to the east of Martinique.
*Maximum Winds:* 45 mph.
*Minimum Central Pressure:* 1007 Millibars or 29.74 Inches.
*Forward Movement:* West-Northwest at a forward speed of 20 mph.
Reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that winds of up to 60 mph are occurring on the northern side of Beryl. In addition, satellite imagery indicates there has been at least a couple of bursts of deep convection that has occurred over the past several hours. So, it appears that in spite of increasingly more unfavorable conditions, Beryl is holding its own.
The amount of wind shear that is expected to impact Beryl will increase over the next couple of days and the storm is likely to be weakening trend as it moves across the central Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean tonight into Monday. From there, Beryl will likely open back up into a trough of low pressure as it nears Hispaniola on Monday night into Tuesday.
Beyond this, the model guidance continues to forecast that the energy and moisture from Beryl will be pulled northwestward into the Bahamas by Tuesday night and Wednesday which would bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to much of the Bahamas throughout Tuesday night and Wednesday. The GFS, European and UKMET model guidance indicate that the system will remain a open wave or trough of low pressure and not try to redevelop into a tropical cyclone when it reaches the Bahamas. On the other hand, the Canadian model guidance insists on the forecast of regeneration into a tropical storm by Tuesday night and Wednesday as Beryl moves across the eastern Bahamas.
At this point, I'm leaning towards the scenario of no regeneration with the remnants of Beryl bringing squally weather to much of the Bahamas on Tuesday night and Wednesday. With that said, this system will still be watched very closely for signs of regeneration once it moves into the Bahamas towards the middle part of next week.
*Forecast Impacts:*
*Winds:* Tropical storm conditions with wind gusts of up to 50 to 60 mph are expected across the islands of Dominica and Guadeloupe tonight with improving weather expected during the day on Monday.
*Rainfall:* Beryl is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches from later today through Monday across the southern Leeward Islands and the northern Windward Islands. Across Puerto Rico, rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected during Monday and Monday night. Across the remainder of the Leeward and Windward Islands and the Virgin Islands, rainfall amounts of up to 1 to 2 inches are expected over the next couple of days.


*Model Track Forecast For Beryl:*


*Model Intensity Forecast For Beryl:*

*Satellite Imagery Of Beryl:*



*Tropical Storm Chris:*
*11 am EDT/10 am CDT Statistics:*
*Location:* 32.9 North Latitude, 75.0 West Longitude or about 160 miles to the southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.
*Maximum Winds:* 45 mph.
*Minimum Central Pressure:* 1006 Millibars or 29.71 Inches.
*Forward Movement:* Stationary.
Satellite imagery this morning indicates that Chris is becoming gradually better organized and is likely to strengthen in the coming days. Chris is located over very warm ocean water temperatures and will remain in this environment for the next several days leading to the potential for quite a bit of strengthening. All of the intensity guidance forecast that Chris will become a hurricane as soon as Tuesday. In addition to this, the environmental conditions are forecast by the model guidance to become very favorable for strengthening by the middle part of this week. These potential very favorable environmental conditions combined with the storm moving over the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream could mean that much more strengthening than what the current forecast shows. In fact, some of the intensity guidance hint at the possibility of Chris becoming a Category 2 hurricane by the middle part of this week.
The forecast track of Chris could be quite interesting for eastern New England, southern and eastern New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. The latest track guidance has shifted westward from a track that keeps the storm just offshore of the coast of Nova Scotia and a impact to southern Newfoundland to a current forecast track that directly impacts southern and eastern Nova Scotia and southern Newfoundland later this week. Even more concerning is that the UKMET model forecasts a track that takes Chris directly over Cape Cod and then into southern and central Maine late this week. While I currently think that the UKMET model may be too far west with the forecast track of Chris, it should be noted that the UKMET model has been correct and first to show potential scenarios with past storms already this season. This means that the UKMET model should not be totally discounted.
So, it is expected that Chris will meander off of the coast of North Carolina from today through Tuesday before a fairly strong trough of low pressure picks up the storm and starts to send it to the northeast. How quick it is picked up and how deep the trough will be is going to be crucial to how close Chris tracks to Atlantic Canada and eastern New England. As I already mentioned, the potential track of Chris could be very uncomfortably close to eastern New England, especially coastal Maine and also extremely close to, if not directly impacting parts of southern and eastern New Brunswick, southern and eastern Nova Scotia and southern and eastern Newfoundland. All interests in eastern New England and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Chris.
*Forecast Impacts:*
*High Surf & Rip Currents:* High surf and the threat for rip currents will continue to impact areas from coastal North Carolina up into the coastal Mid-Atlantic States over the next 2 to 3 days. The high surf and rip current threat will spread northward into coastal New England and coastal parts of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia by the middle part of this week and continue through the end of this week.


*Model Track Forecast For Chris:*


*Model Intensity Forecast For Chris:*

*Satellite Imagery Of Chris:*

----------


## didier

Beryl is going..........going..............gone.  bye bye

----------

