# St Barts Forums > Storm Tracker >  >  Hurricane  Maria

## tim



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## tim



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## BBT

*Hurricane Jose:*
*11 am EDT/10 am CDT Statistics:*
*Location:* 31.0 North Latitude, 71.9 West Longitude or about 355 miles to the southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.
*Maximum Winds:* 90 mph.
*Minimum Central Pressure:* 967 Millibars or 28.56 Inches.
*Forward Movement:* North at a forward speed of 9 mph.
Jose is an intensifying hurricane this morning as reconnaissance aircraft have found a central barometric pressure of 967 millibars and 90 to 95 mph maximum winds. Additional strengthening is likely today through at least Monday and Jose has the potential to become a Category 2 hurricane sometime on Monday. Starting by Tuesday and continuing beyond this, Jose is forecast to begin moving over much colder ocean water temperatures and weakening is likely as Jose approaches the south coast of Long Island and the south coast of New England on Wednesday. The GFS model's forecast of a strengthening hurricane off of the coast of New England during the middle and end of this week is not believable given the very unfavorable environmental conditions that are anticipated.
Jose is moving nearly due north on the western side of a ridge of high pressure. The model guidance are split into two camps. The first consists of the GFS model and the Canadian model guidance which forecasts Jose to track nearly due north until it reaches 38 North Latitude on Tuesday. Once it reaches this position, it is forecast by this model group to sharply turn to the northeast and east-northeast and pass fairly far south and east of Nantucket. The other camp consists of the European and UKMET model guidance which forecasts Jose to head northward right for New England through Tuesday and then stop right in its tracks right around 40 North Latitude and 72 West Longitude on Wednesday. From there, the European and UKMET model guidance forecasts a loop around back to the west with a much, much weaker storm heading for New Jersey next weekend.
If we average all of the model guidance together, it shows Jose heading due north until it reaches 39-40 North Latitude and then shows a sharp turn to the east-northeast along 40 North Latitude.
Even though, I think that Jose will pass south and southeast of Nantucket Island along 40-41 North Latitude from Tuesday through Wednesday, we are going to have to closely watch for the idea posed by the European model which would bring impacts to much of southern New England through Long Island into parts of New Jersey from Tuesday to Thursday.
*Forecast Impacts:*
*Wind:* Wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph are possible across southern New Jersey, extreme eastern Long Island and Cape Cod from Tuesday through Wednesday. 60-plus mph winds are possible late Tuesday into Wednesday on Block Island, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket. Further inland, wind gusts of 25 to 40 mph are possible from late Tuesday through Wednesday across the rest of New Jersey, southeastern New York State, western and central Long Island, much of the rest of Massachusetts, much of Connecticut and much of Rhode Island.
*Rainfall:* Rainfall totals from Tuesday to Thursday will range from 3 to 5 inches across eastern New Jersey, much of Long Island, southern Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, southeastern Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands, 1 to 3 inches across the rest of New Jersey, southeastern New York State, the rest of Connecticut, central and northern Rhode Island, western, central and eastern Massachusetts.
*Coastal Flooding:* Minor to moderate coastal flooding is likely at the time of high tide on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday along the New Jersey coast, the southern shore of Long Island as well as along the south coast of New England.
There remains a large amount of uncertainty as to what type of a track Jose will take once it approaches Long Island and southern New England. A closer track to New England would mean much more significant impacts across a large part of New England while a further south track way offshore would mean much less impacts across New England. So, definitely stay tuned for updates on Jose.

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## BBT

*Maria

11 am EDT/10 am CDT Statistics:*
*Location:* 13.5 North Latitude, 56.2 West Longitude or about 450 miles to the east-southeast of the Leeward Islands.
*Maximum Winds:* 65 mph.
*Minimum Central Pressure:* 994 Millibars or 29.36 Inches.
*Forward Movement:* West-Northwest at a forward speed of 15 mph.
Maria is strengthening this morning with deep thunderstorm activity firing near the center of the storm. I think that Maria is well on its way to becoming a hurricane and likely will become one before the end of today. In addition, the intensity guidance indicates there is the potential for rapid intensification over the next couple of days and it could be a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) by the time it reaches the eastern Caribbean by Tuesday.
Maria is tracking to the west-northwest on the south and southwest side of a high pressure ridge. This west-northwesterly track is likely to continue for at least next 2 to 3 days and I have extreme concerns that a major hurricane impact will occur across parts of the central and northern Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
I think that we will see the center of Maria pass right over Guadeloupe, Antigua, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane on Monday night into Tuesday. I do have serious concerns for a northward shift in the track as some of the guidance are showing a track that takes the center of Maria right across the same exact areas that Irma moved across.
*Everyone across the islands of Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe, Antigua, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Barbuda, St. Martin, St. Maarten and Anguilla* need to prepare RIGHT NOW for a hurricane hit and it could be a major hurricane impact starting late Monday and continuing through Monday night and into Tuesday.
*If you are in Puerto Rico and the U.S. & British Virgin Islands * Prepare RIGHT NOW for a major hurricane impact Wednesday into Thursday. There continues to be very strong agreement among the model guidance that shows Maria moving right over some part of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Impacts from Maria across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands will be as bad, if not much worse than any other system that has impacted this area in the last 15 years or so. This potentially includes life threatening winds of up to 130 to 140 mph, flooding and mudslides and a storm surge.
Looking ahead to next weekend and beyond, the overall weather pattern could become quite complicated and confusing and may rest heavily on what Jose does this coming week. If Jose hangs around long enough leading to a weakness in the high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic, it could cause Maria to eventually turn north and northeastward away from the United States. This is something the GFS model is showing may happen, however, I am very skeptical of its solution because it is physically impossible for a tropical cyclone to strengthen over 60-70 Degree Fahrenheit ocean waters and this is exactly what the GFS is forecasting with Jose.
On the other hand, if Jose weakens significantly later this week and ends up dissipating like the European model guidance shows, it would lead to that western Atlantic ridge building back in and blocking Maria from turning out away from the US East Coast. Instead, that western Atlantic high pressure ridge would guide Maria inland right into the southeastern United States between September 25th and September 27th.
At this point, unfortunately, I'm leaning towards the scenario that consists of Jose weakening later next week to the point where there is no weakness in the ridge. This means that there's the possibility that Maria could be a very serious hurricane threat for the Bahamas next weekend and for some part of the US East Coast between September 25th and September 27th.
*Forecast Impacts:*
*Wind:* Hurricane force winds with wind gusts in excess of 100 mph are expected across at least Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe, Antigua, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis on Monday night into Tuesday. For Barbuda, St. Martin, St. Maarten and Anguilla, we are going to have to closely watch any north shifts in the track as if it does occur, it would shift the hurricane force winds northward and impact the northern Leeward Islands on Monday night into Tuesday. For now, tropical storm force winds seem likely across Barbuda, St. Martin, St. Maarten and Anguilla on Monday night and Tuesday.
Major hurricane force winds of up to 130 to 140 mph are forecast for the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday and Wednesday night and across eastern and northern parts of the Dominican Republic on Thursday into Friday. As I have already mentioned, impacts from Maria across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands will be as bad, if not much worse than any other system that has impacted this area in the last 15 years or so. This potentially includes life threatening winds of up to 130 to 140 mph, flooding and mudslides and a storm surge.
*Storm Surge:* A storm surge of 4 to 6 feet are expected across much of the central and northern Lesser Antilles on Monday night and Tuesday. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves on top of the surge.
A storm surge of at least 4 to 6 feet are expected across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday and across the Dominican Republic on Thursday.
*Rainfall:* Total rainfall amounts from Monday to Thursday of 10 to 20 inches are expected across the central and southern Leeward Islands and 4 to 8 inches across the northern Leeward Islands. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash floods and mudslides this week.

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## tim



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## stbartshopper

Dominica and Puerto Rico direct hits forecasted but well south of SBH! Whew- we hope!

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## garykool81

Dominica is one of the most beautiful islands I've ever visited. Right up there with St. Lucia. It is also incredibly impoverished. Maria is going to destroy this gorgeous place and leave the population without infrastructure and basic public services, along with a government that likely won't have the resources of the islands Irma hit. 

It it seems this hurricane season is intent on destroying the eastern Caribbean.

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## amyb

So sad. This hurricane season of 2017 is devastating!  Horrible for all who are going through it.

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## Abycatgirl

I am so heartbroken about our lovely island!   Just heartbroken.  I hope my friends and all the people of St Barts are doing well and that Hurricane Maria is passing through swiftly and gently.

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## stbartshopper

St. Maarten now has Tropical storm warnings. Guadeloupe where people from St. Maarten have gone also has Tropical warnings.

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## andynap



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## JB

They have a functioning live cam at the airport St Barts and another in San Juan


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1NuSXgbIHk

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## fins85258

2:00 pm St Barts Time

I took a look at NOAA, the Windy wind map & google earth and did an approximate measure to the eye of the hurricane.  It looks like Maria is about 100 miles due south and moving wnw toward St. Croix / Puerto Rico. If I'm correct it's good for sbh and not so good for sju and stx. Hope my friends on St Croix are prepared for the wind.

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## stbartshopper

Finally- something unusual- all of us we think are 'out of the woods' from a hurricane perspective. Maria is headed northeast, Jose is throwing up a little wave action on the eastern shores and Lee has gone to sleep. There is nothing on the horizon. WHEW!!! Enough for this season please but it is only a little over half done.

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