# St Barts Forums > Storm Tracker >  >  Monday AM update

## BBT

* Depression Kirk:*
*5 am EDT/4 am CDT Statistics:*
*Location:* 9.5 North Latitude, 37.4 West Longitude or about 1615 miles to the east of the Windward Islands.
*Maximum Winds:* 35 mph.
*Minimum Central Pressure:* 1007 Millibars or 29.74 Inches.
*Forward Movement:* West at a forward speed of 24 mph.
Even though there has been somewhat of an increase in thunderstorm activity, it appears that the circulation with Kirk is just moving too quickly to the west and thus it may be opening up into a trough of low pressure, instead of being a tropical cyclone.
As I already mentioned, Kirk is moving very quickly to the west, thus is why the system is not only struggling, but is also likely steady-state or still weakening. Kirk is expected to slow down in forward speed by Tuesday and it might have about 24 hours where it's able to strengthen before increasing amounts of wind shear begin to impact the storm. Very strong wind shear is likely to impact Kirk in the eastern Caribbean leading to the system to potentially dissipate at the end of this week.
With that said, I do think that there is the possibility that Kirk will impact some part of the Lesser Antilles as a 40-50 mph tropical storm on Thursday night and Friday. Barbados, the Windward Islands and the southern Leeward Islands are at highest risk for tropical storm conditions Thursday night and Friday.
Beyond this, I think that we will need to keep a close eye on the track of Kirk when it pushes into the Caribbean next weekend. A few members of both the European ensemble and GFS ensemble model guidance forecast Kirk may either head for the Bahamas or the western Caribbean during next week. At this point, I think that we're going to have to see what sort of shape Kirk is in at the end of this week and this weekend before we start looking seriously at what it might do next week. If Kirk's circulation completely dissipates in the eastern Caribbean, then redevelopment next week seems unlikely. On the other hand, if Kirk is able to maintain a circulation in the face of forecasted very strong wind shear in the Caribbean and make it to either the Bahamas or the western Caribbean, then we are going to have to very closely watch for redevelopment next week.
Bottom line is that I am keeping a very close eye on Kirk and will continue to have updates for you as conditions warrant.

*Model Track Forecast For Kirk:*

*Satellite Imagery Of Kirk:*



*Invest 98-L Located Halfway Between Bermuda & The Bahamas:* There has been an increase in thunderstorm activity and increased organization associated with Invest 98-L, which is an area of low pressure located about halfway between Bermuda and the Bahamas. Satellite imagery indicates that a majority of the thunderstorm activity is occurring on the northern and western side of the low pressure center and recent imagery indicates that the low pressure center may be trying to tuck itself inside of some this convection. The environmental conditions are favorable for additional development with 10 knots or less of wind shear occurring over Invest 98-L.
It appears that the environmental conditions will remain favorable for development right through Tuesday before wind shear values begin to increase over Invest 98-L. With that said, the track intensity guidance forecast very little intensification over the next 48 hours and at most they forecast this system to become a low end tropical storm. The reason for this is found in water vapor satellite imagery which shows dry air still trying to impinge on the thunderstorm cluster that is building around Invest 98-L.
The most certain part with the forecast of Invest 98-L continues to be that it will be very close to, if not tracking right over the outer banks of North Carolina on Wednesday. The much less certain part of the forecast is whether Invest 98-L will develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm over the next couple of days or so. If we continue to see the increase in thunderstorm activity that we're seeing right now, then I think we will most definitely see this system become a tropical depression and maybe even a low end tropical storm by the time it reaches the outer banks of North Carolina coast on Wednesday morning. On the other hand, if we see thunderstorm activity collapse due to dry air ingestion, then very little development would likely occur.
Either way, Invest 98-L will bring some gusty winds and a few bands of rainfall & embedded thunderstorms across the outer banks of North Carolina starting on Tuesdayand continuing through Wednesday. I am monitoring Invest 98-L very closely and will have additional updates for you as conditions warrant.
*Invest 98-L Information:*


*Model Track Forecast:*

*Satellite Imagery:*



*The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday Morning or sooner if conditions*

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## cec1

Good stuff!  Thanks, Bob.

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## amyb

Good start to the day. Nice news.

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## BBT

Kirk has regenerated into a 45 mph tropical storm and is located about 470 miles to the east of Barbados.  Because of this, Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches have been posted for the following areas: 

- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:
Barbados
St. Lucia

- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for: 
St. Vincent and the Grenadines

Tropical Storm conditions are expected across the Windward Islands and Barbados beginning Thursday afternoon and continuing through Thursday night into Friday morning.  This includes winds of up to 60 mph and very rough seas.  In addition, heavy rainfall with total amounts of 4 to 8 inches are expected across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands from Barbados and St. Lucia northward across Martinique, Dominica and Guadeloupe.  Flash flooding and mudslides are likely across these islands.  

A full tropical weather discussion will be sent out by 10 am EDT/9 am CDT this morning.

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## elgreaux

St Barth in the clear so far from Kirk, Martinique and Guadeloupe have been put on yellow alert, so the path does seem to be a bit south of here...

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## BBT

*Kirk Has Regenerated Into A Tropical Storm & Will Bring Tropical Storm Conditions To Barbados, The Windward Islands & The Southern Leeward Islands Thursday Into Friday*


*Tropical Storm Kirk:*
*8 am EDT/7 am CDT Statistics:*
*Location:* 12.0 North Latitude, 53.5 West Longitude or about 415 miles to the east of Barbados.
*Maximum Winds:* 45 mph.
*Minimum Central Pressure:* 1004 Millibars or 29.65 Inches.
*Forward Movement:* West at a forward speed of 18 mph.
Kirk has regenerated into a tropical storm as satellite imagery this morning indicated deep thunderstorm activity is organizing around the center of the storm. In addition, satellite estimated wind analysis indicated that 40 to 45 knot winds may be occurring with the tropical storm. With that said, it would not at all surprise me to see reconnaissance aircraft find a stronger storm than what satellite is currently estimating given the look on infrared and visible satellite imagery.
Kirk is now moving into an area of lower wind shear which should lead to strengthening the rest of today into tonight. Even though, I think Kirk will remain a tropical storm, there is the very real possibility that it could make a run at hurricane strength over the next 24 hours or so. By Thursday and especially on Friday, Kirk is expected to slam into some very strong wind shear on the order of 25-35 knots and this will cause rapid weakening once it moves into the eastern Caribbean. Before then, however, Kirk is expected to be at least a moderately strong tropical storm when it crosses the Windward Islands and the southern Leeward Islands on Thursday afternoon and Thursday night and preparations for tropical storm conditions should be made and completed today.
*Forecast Impacts On Barbados, The Windward Islands & The Southern Leeward Islands:*
*Wind:* Tropical storm conditions with winds of up to 60 mph are expected to impact Barbados, St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica and Guadeloupe beginning Thursday afternoon and continuing through Thursday night and Friday morning. Please be aware that there is the possibility that Kirk could be a hurricane when it moves through on Thursday afternoon and Thursday night and hurricane force wind gusts cannot be ruled out.
*Rain, Flooding & Mudslides:* Heavy rain associated with Kirk will impact the southern Leeward Islands, the Windward Islands and Barbados throughout all of Thursday, all of Thursday night and much of Friday. Total rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are expected across the islands of Barbados, St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica and Guadeloupe. These heavy rain totals will lead to life taking and property destroying flash floods and mudslides.
*Looking Down The Road At What Might Occur With Kirk * It is expected that even though Kirk will likely dissipate in the eastern Caribbean late this week due to very strong wind shear, we are going to have to keep a very close eye on its remnants when it reaches the western Caribbean next week.
Even though the longer range model guidance agree that western or central Caribbean tropical development is a possibility later next week, they cannot agree as to how this may occur. The GFS model points to a scenario of some of the energy from Kirk combining with energy from the eastern Pacific to produce a tropical storm in the central Caribbean late next week and next weekend.
The Canadian model forecasts Kirk to remain a tropical storm all the way across the Caribbean with impacts to Jamaica on Sunday, the Cayman Islands on Monday and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday.
The European model forecasts dissipation in the eastern Caribbean around Friday and Saturday with some of the energy consolidating in the southwestern Caribbean early next week. By late next week, the European model forecasts some development just south of Jamaica.
The European ensemble guidance shows a large amount of its members forecasting Kirk to move into the southwestern Caribbean later next week. Beyond that, the ensemble members are split with some forecasting a northward track towards the Bahamas next weekend and others forecasting a track towards the Bay of Campeche.
*Here Are My Thoughts:* I think that there is enough evidence in the data that suggests Kirk or the remnants of Kirk may make it into the western Caribbean during the late part of next week. One thing that is for sure is that Kirk has been a fighter and I have concerns that it could be a western and possibly central Caribbean problem late next week. Where it goes after that remains to be seen, but the long range ensemble guidance suggests the southern US high pressure ridge may back off to the west allowing for any tropical system to head northward out of the Caribbean. With that said, it should be noted that all of the guidance have been under forecasting the strength of the upper level ridge in their long range forecasts and we may end up seeing a stronger upper level ridge in the end. What this means is that the northward track forecast by some of the guidance may be wrong and we may end up with a system that tracks westward towards the Bay of Campeche instead of northward towards Florida and the Bahamas.
*Bottom line is that* I really do think that the western Caribbean will be a spot to watch very closely for potential tropical development late next week, however, it is way too early to say where exactly any system may go.


*Model Track Forecast For Kirk:*

*Satellite Imagery Of Kirk:*

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## BBT

> St Barth in the clear so far from Kirk, Martinique and Guadeloupe have been put on yellow alert, so the path does seem to be a bit south of here...



Agree so far so good

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## elgreaux

As of 6pm Tuesday, Saint Barth and Saint Martin are now on yellow alert for heavy rain, high wind, dangerous surf, and Martinique and Guadeloupe are on orange alert as Kirk approaches the islands.
French president Macron was expected to land late tonight in Martinique for a visit to the region, he will have to hold on to his hat!

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## amyb

Stay safe!

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## andynap

> As of 6pm Tuesday, Saint Barth and Saint Martin are now on yellow alert for heavy rain, high wind, dangerous surf, and Martinique and Guadeloupe are on orange alert as Kirk approaches the islands.
> French president Macron was expected to land late tonight in Martinique for a visit to the region, he will have to hold on to his hat!

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## elgreaux

> Stay safe!



thanks, we had some rain last night and cloudy skies today.. hopefully it will blow over!

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## BBT

*Tropical Storm Kirk:*
*8 am EDT/7 am CDT Statistics:*
*Location:* 13.6 North Latitude, 58.7 West Longitude or about 60 miles to the east-northeast of Barbados.
*Maximum Winds:* 50 mph.
*Minimum Central Pressure:* 1000 Millibars or 29.53 Inches.
*Forward Movement:* West-Northwest at a forward speed of 16 mph.
Satellite imagery indicates that Kirk looks more organized this morning as compared to just 12 hours ago. Even though the overall circulation is quite tilted due to increasing wind shear, the low-level center is very close to or just tucked into the deeper convection on the western side of the entire convective mass. Reconnaissance aircraft now investigating Kirk have found a central pressure of 999 millibars and winds that support a 50 mph tropical storm. There is no question now that Barbados, much of the Windward Islands and the southern Leeward Islands will see tropical storm force winds this afternoon through tonight and into Friday.
Very strong wind shear on the order of around 40 knots awaits Kirk when it pushes into the eastern Caribbean tonight and Friday and this will lead to the storm weakening rather quickly and dissipating this weekend in the central Caribbean.
*Forecast Impacts On Barbados, The Windward Islands & The Southern Leeward Islands:*
*Wind:* Tropical storm conditions with winds of up to 60 mph are expected to impact Barbados, St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica and Guadeloupe throughout this afternoon, tonight and Friday morning.
*Rain, Flooding & Mudslides:* Heavy rain associated with Kirk will impact the southern Leeward Islands, the Windward Islands and Barbados throughout the rest of today, all of tonight and into Friday. Total rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are expected across the islands of Barbados, St. Lucia and Guadeloupe. 8 to 12 inches of total rainfall is expected across the islands of Martinique and Dominica. These heavy rain totals will lead to life taking and property destroying flash floods and mudslides today, tonight and Friday.
Kirk is expected to bring 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts across eastern Puerto Rico from Friday into Saturday.


*Model Track Forecast For Kirk:*

*Satellite Imagery Of Kirk:*



*Tropical Weather Outlook For The Month Of October:* The overall weather pattern across the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and western Atlantic looks favorable for tropical development during at least the first half of October. The reason why is because a new upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is expected to spread from the eastern Pacific into the Atlantic Basin over the next week or so and remain in place until about mid-October.
The very long guidance are picking up on this by showing a overall trend of lower barometric pressures starting in the western Caribbean during the first week of October and spreading into the Gulf of Mexico and the western Atlantic during the second and third weeks of October. This means that October could be active in terms of tropical activity and we will need to remain vigilant for any late season tropical development.
Looking more closely at the model guidance, while they all agree that the chances for tropical development in the central and western Caribbean will increase by late next week, they still have some very different ideas on what may occur.
The GFS model and especially the FV3-GFS experimental model both insist that energy will be pulled out of the Caribbean leading to tropical development to occur in the Bahamas next weekend.
The Canadian model forecasts that the tropical development will occur in the western Caribbean late next week and next weekend.
The European model is also showing western Caribbean tropical development around Friday and Saturday of next week.
There is a little more spread with the European ensemble guidance members with their forecast of tropical development next weekend. Members are spread from the western Caribbean westward to the Bay of Campeche and then northeastward to the Bahamas. From there, the ensemble members diverge with the members that show development in the Bahamas forecasting a track up the US East Coast between October 8 and October 10. The members that show western Caribbean or Bay of Campeche development forecast a track into the western Gulf of Mexico around October 10 and 11.
*Here Are My Thoughts:* I do think that there is a strong enough signal to say that western or central Caribbean tropical development is a possibility as soon as late next week or next weekend. Where it goes after that remains to be seen. The model guidance continues to suggest that a upper level ridge of high pressure over the southeastern US may both weaken and back off allowing for any tropical systems in the Caribbean to head northward out of the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico or the Bahamas. With that said, it should be noted that all of the guidance have been both vastly under forecasting the strength of the upper level ridge and trying to break the high pressure ridge too quickly in their long range forecasts.
What this means is that we may end up seeing a stronger southeastern US upper level ridge leading to any tropical system heading westward or northwestward towards the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf of Mexico instead of northward towards Florida and the Bahamas.
*Bottom line is that* I really do think that the western and central Caribbean will be a spot to watch very closely for potential tropical development late next week and next weekend, however, it is way too early to say where exactly any system may go.
*The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Friday Morning or sooner if conditions warrant.
*

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## stbartshopper

Since there have been no further reports, we assume the storm blew by with minimal impact?

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