# St Barts Forums > Storm Tracker >  >  Something to watch

## BBT

just something to watch may just bring some showers. Hopefully Saharan air layer will suck up

----------


## Rosita

I have to gogo back home first

----------


## BBT

> I have to gogo back home first



Stay where it's cool.

----------


## BBT

These are very disorganized disturbances but should be watched.

----------


## elgreaux

we had some serious rain and a bit of wind from those systems yesterday and the islands were on yellow alert... calmer so far today...

----------


## amyb

That is good to see, Ellen

----------


## BBT

*BRIDGETOWN, Barbados, Thursday August 17, 2017*  A tropical depression that forecasters say is likely to become Tropical Storm Harvey later today is headed for the Windward Islands.
A tropical storm warning is now in effect for Barbados, St Lucia, Martinique and St Vincent and the Grenadines while a tropical storm watch has been issued for Dominica.
At 11 a.m., when the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) in Miami issued its first bulletin on potential tropical cyclone number nine, the depression was 365 miles east of Barbados and 465 miles east of St Lucia and carrying maximum sustained winds near 35 miles per hour.
The system is moving toward the west near 17 miles per hour and that motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the disturbance should move through the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea tomorrow.

The disturbance is expected to become a tropical cyclone later today or tonight, and it could become a tropical storm before reaching the Windward Islands. If the current trends continue, the system will likely become a tropical cyclone later today or tonight. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, the NHC said.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the Lesser Antilles within the warning area by early tomorrow, while tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area tomorrow.
The system is expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the Windward Islands from Martinique southward to Grenada.
These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, the NHC warned.


Read more: http://www.caribbean360.com/news/pot...#ixzz4q2H78z7f

----------


## BBT



----------


## tim

> *BRIDGETOWN, Barbados, Thursday August 17, 2017* – A tropical depression that forecasters say is likely to become Tropical Storm Harvey later today is headed for the Windward Islands.
> A tropical storm warning is now in effect for Barbados, St Lucia, Martinique and St Vincent and the Grenadines while a tropical storm watch has been issued for Dominica.
> At 11 a.m., when the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) in Miami issued its first bulletin on potential tropical cyclone number nine, the depression was 365 miles east of Barbados and 465 miles east of St Lucia and carrying maximum sustained winds near 35 miles per hour.
> The system is moving toward the west near 17 miles per hour and that motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the disturbance should move through the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea tomorrow.
> 
> “The disturbance is expected to become a tropical cyclone later today or tonight, and it could become a tropical storm before reaching the Windward Islands. If the current trends continue, the system will likely become a tropical cyclone later today or tonight. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon,” the NHC said.
> Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the Lesser Antilles within the warning area by early tomorrow, while tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area tomorrow.
> The system is expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the Windward Islands from Martinique southward to Grenada.
> “These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides,” the NHC warned.
> ...



I like the animated post!

----------


## BBT

> I like the animated post!



It was a cut and paste and I was surprised it kept the anamation also

----------


## BBT

By 2 p.m., Harvey was moving into the Caribbean Sea and away from the Windward Islands. All tropical storm warnings and watches were discontinued.
At that time, the storm was about 60 miles west of St Vincent and 85 miles west southwest of St Lucia, and headed towards the west at 21 miles per hour.

Harvey, carrying maximum sustained winds near 40 miles per hour, is expected to continue on its current track for the next couple of days, moving away from the Windward Islands and through the eastern Caribbean Sea this afternoon and tonight before moving into the central Caribbean Sea tomorrow, the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) in Miami said.
Weather conditions in the Windward Islands are expected to improve as the day progresses.
However, Tropical Storm Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts across parts of the Leeward and Windward Islands, from Guadeloupe southward to Grenada, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.


Read more: http://www.caribbean360.com/news/tro...#ixzz4q8TYgWxZ

----------


## elgreaux

I think Martinique and Guadeloupe are still under yellow alert for possible heavy rain... cloudy here !

----------


## BBT

just something to keep an eye on.

----------


## BBT

*FLORIDA, United States, Wednesday August 30, 2017*  Tropical Storm Irma has made an appearance and residents of the Caribbean are being advised to track its progress because it could potentially threaten some islands next week.
Earlier this week, the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) in Miami said potential tropical cyclone number 10 which was located off the southeast US coast had the potential to become the next named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. But it was a tropical wave off the Cabo Verde Islands at that time that has developed into Irma.
The NHC said in its 11 a.m. advisory that Irma had formed over the far eastern Atlantic, but it posed no immediate threat. It was about 420 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands and moving toward the west near 13 miles per hour at the time.

According to the NHC, that general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, along with some strengthening, and Irma, currently carrying maximum sustained winds near 50 miles per hour, could become a hurricane by Friday.


Read more: http://www.caribbean360.com/news/tro...#ixzz4rGu2Pk2l

----------


## KevinS

Yup, keep a weather eye to the East.  Irma has the potential to be nasty.

----------


## BBT



----------


## BBT



----------


## BBT



----------


## KevinS

Irma is already a Category 3 Hurricane, with lots of warm water ahead of it to feed on.

----------


## fins85258

this might be a good time to think about battening down the hatches


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...shtml?hwind120

----------


## didier

looks like its headed here alright

----------


## andynap

Some posters have canceled their trip because of it.

----------


## chris83

Anyone living on the island should prepare.
   There's a high probability IRMA will be a strong cat 4 or even cat 5 when arriving in the area.It should stay cat 3 today and start intensifying again saturday afternoon when it will meet warmer water.There's nothing on its way to stop it from getting stronger.
   This means hurricane winds about 40 miles from the eye,and tropical storm winds 150m from it.
   Please note IRMA is moving quite slowly...resulting in lots of rain.
   A near/direct hit on the island is a possibility according to several models.

----------


## BBT



----------


## BBT



----------


## andynap



----------


## chris83

IRMA trended further west than anticipated and is now almost on a direct path to St Barth
   Water being much warmer,it is going to strengthen again.
   If you can evacuate,you should.
   You face the risk of a cat 5 arriving directly on the island.

   Track it here
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane...-2017/AL112017

----------


## BBT



----------


## cassidain

and the latest nhc discussion for irma:
000
WTNT41 KNHC 030849
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 AM AST Sun Sep 03 2017

Irma's convective pattern has improved slightly overnight.  Very
cold cloud tops completely encircle the eye, which has warmed and
become a bit clearer in infrared satellite images.  The initial
intensity is raised to 100 kt based on a blend of the latest
subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.

Irma has been losing latitude since yesterday due to strong high
pressure to its north, and the initial motion is now west-
southwestward, or 255/13 kt.  The hurricane is likely to continue
moving on this trajectory for the next 36 hours, after which time it
should gradually turn toward the west and then west-northwest on
days 3-5 when it reaches the western extent of the ridge.  The new
NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one during the
first 48 hours, showing Irma bottoming out around 16.5N.  However,
the track guidance has shifted westward after 48 hours, delaying a
turn toward the west-northwest, and this required a corresponding
westward shift in the official forecast toward the multi-model
consensus at the end of the forecast period.  It should be noted
that the official forecast still lies to the east of some of the
better-performing models, such as the ECMWF, HWRF, and HCCA, so
additional adjustment are possible in subsequent advisories.

The environment ahead of Irma appears conducive for gradual
strengthening for at least the next 2 to 3 days, with increasing sea
surface temperatures and a moistening in the mid-levels of the
atmosphere.  We may still observe fluctuations in intensity, but
overall, the model guidance seems to suggest a general upward
trend with a peak in intensity possibly occurring around day 3.
This type of intensification would coincide with the timing of
Irma's west-southwest to westward motion, a pattern which we have
observed in other west-southwestward-moving hurricanes in the past
(i.e., Katrina, Joaquin, Fernanda, etc.).  The NHC intensity
forecast is bumped up slightly, showing a peak in intensity on day
3, and is largely a blend of the ICON intensity consensus and HCCA.

While Irma is currently a small hurricane, the size guidance
suggests it should grow in size during the next 72 h.  This will
affect how soon watches may be issued for portions of the Leeward
and Virgin Islands, and interests on those islands should continue
to monitor Irma's progress.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is expected to be a major hurricane when it moves closer to
the Lesser Antilles over the next few days, producing rough surf and
rip currents.  Irma could also cause dangerous wind, storm surge,
and rainfall impacts on some islands, although it is too soon to
specify where and when those hazards could occur.  Residents in the
Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Irma through the
weekend and listen to any advice given by local officials.

2. It is much too early to determine what direct impacts Irma will
have on the Bahamas and the continental United States.  Regardless,
everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their
hurricane plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 18.0N  47.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 17.5N  49.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 16.8N  51.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 16.5N  53.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 16.5N  55.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 17.8N  60.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  07/0600Z 20.0N  66.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 22.5N  71.5W  115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

----------

