# St Barts Forums > Storm Tracker >  >  Jersey/Delaware Nor'easter

## andynap

*Schwartz: Nor'easter could hit Jersey Shore*




*GLENN HURRICANE SCHWARTZ, NBC10 PHILADELPHIA*

_LAST UPDATED: Wednesday, August 5, 2015, 7:08 PM_
_Possible Nor'easter_

_Instead of a simple storm tracking south of the Philly area Friday, we may see something stronger, slower, windier, and wetter. And the area most affected would be the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. Anyone planning a trip this weekend should be aware of possible changing forecasts (in any event, Sunday looks nice)._

_Which model to root for_

_As weve said many times, there are a lot of different computer forecast models, from all over the world. They show future weather patterns, and even specific things like temperatures and amounts of rain. When they all agree, we can have a lot of confidence in our forecasts. When they disagree, like now, we can do one of three things:_

_1. Pick the model we believe is going to be best_

_2. Take an average of the all the models_

_3. If the models fall into two different camps (for example, one tracking out to sea and one more up the coast), pick the general answer and then average the models in that camp._

_Its hard not to have a bias toward (or against) a particular model. Maybe it steered us wrong the last time, or it would require a drastic change in the existing forecast. Apparently, this happens with many other types of forecasting (sports, stocks, climate change, etc.), and it happens so often theres even a name for it: Confirmation Bias. Our bias is to look for whatever solution agrees with our current forecast or belief. In this case, our last forecast was for nice weather Saturday. We then root for the models that still show that._ 

_Which model is in which 'camp'?_

_The worlds best model overall, as we all should know by now, is the European. Its the best in general and best for Noreasters. It does tend to get too extreme and too slow at times. We hope thats the case now. In the EURO camp is the UKMET, SREF, and NAVGEM (and others). They all show a strong storm, moving slowly, that brings significant rain not only to the shore, but all the way to the Phila. area. They would keep the rain and wind in the area even into Saturday (BOOOOOO!). Here are a couple of EURO maps showing the general track of the LOW pressure area:_

_image: http://media.philly.com/images/weekend_map_1024.jpg_
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_image: http://media.philly.com/images/weekend_map_1024_2.jpg_
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_The other camp consists of the GFS, Canadian, RPM, JMA, and NAM (and others). They have the storm weaker and faster, and track it farther east. (YEA!!!!!!) If theyre right, the storm moves more out to sea, leaving us with a nice Saturday. Our confirmation bias wants this solution to be right for two reasons: it would be similar to yesterdays forecast; and none of us like rain on summer weekends, especially at the shore._

_The models are run every 3, 6 or 12 hours, depending on the model. So there are several model runs to go before the weekend. Feel free to root for your favorites._



_
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/No...BswZfDvKC1r.99_

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## MIke R

Yeah we re watching it here ....,fortunately NE winds are a great direction for us ....nice and calm no matter how hard it blows.....not so on the ocean side though

honestly I could use a forced day off with a good  book curled up in bed and a pot  of soup on the stove ....we have had an amazing stretch of weather

We had a T Storm come through on Tuesday with wind gusts to 80....we had four dinghies with their engines flipped upside down...engines ruined.....i thought it was a tornado but they say no ....just a really bad gust

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