# St Barts Forums > Storm Tracker >  >  Back to back?

## Peter NJ

*Jan 20: Major Storm Threats for the Northeast*		 By *Meteorologist Joe CiofficloseAuthor: Meteorologist Joe CioffiName: Meteorologist Joe Cioffi
Email:  Joewxman@optonline.net
Website: http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/
About: See Other Articles from this Author (7)*				January 20, 2015 14:56							

 
*Related Articles*Arthur on SatelliteArthurs Latest TrackTropical Model Guidance

If it winds up that we have* not one but 2 major storms to deal with* only a couple of days apart it would be the first time that I can remember ever seeing something like this. In fact* I had to really give the European a double take today* because it just didnt seem right to me. But the model does what the model does. It has been telegraphing 2 storms (not including Wednesdays clipper) but as we talked about yesterday the first one for the weekend looked like it was going to get shoved out to sea, though it was not impossible that it would shift to the left..which it has now for 2 runs in a row. My attention was more on the second event for Tuesday. Now *both events seem square on the table*. And if they turn out to be correct, those areas that have been crying for snow, might instead be crying for it to stop!
Okay so before we lose it here completely lets take a look and see what is happening with both weather systems
 
The big change from yesterday is that with the first system there is suddenly room. *The northern stream is much more consolidated and less suppressive* which allows the southern stream feature to lift up and intensity. The result is a storm that moves up the coast and tracks from North Carolina straight to just east of Cape Cod and *deepens to less than a 980mb*. It is pretty much the same as the Gfs model from today as described in my earlier post.
 
Now look behind all this and you see *a ridge that is still gaining strength in the west*. This forces an evens stronger upper air disturbance to drive southward. Yesterdays maps showed the trough on the coast. Look at how much further west it is now as it digs into the Ohio Valley. Those maps are shown below at 144 hrs which is Monday morning 7am and 168 hrs which is Tuesday morning 7am. The low redevelpes and intensifies tracking east of Atlantic City to the Gulf of Maine. AMAZING!!!
 
 
Now that we have seen all this and tried to digest it..remember that *it is really really really unusual to see 2 back to back events like this* especially since the winter from the standpoint of storms so far has been relatively quiet. However obviously the atmosphere and the pattern has shifted into a stormier mode. Im not sure whether I totally believe this yet however I would not want to think we would make up for all of the last month and do it in 72 hrs!
Here are the bottom lines*odds of first storm for Saturday are increased to HIGH*..SPECIFIC DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS.
*POSSIBILITY of a second event Monday into Monday night.*..with even more  details to follow..after we deal with the clipper tomorrow..and then the Saturday event..and then maybe Monday..and then maybe a vacation!
At this point comes the shameless plug to like and share my facebook page! Thank you
*In English:* In addition to a potential snow storm this weekend, another possibility exists for early next week.

*Comments*92 comments

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## Peter NJ

Sounds good for the Skiers and people in the tropics

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## MIke R

We need the snow .....it's been a fairly dry winter so far....

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## Peter NJ

They are now saying up to two feet of Snow with this storm and 50 
mph winds. Don't like this

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## stbartshopper

We drove through the band heading from Indiana to Michigan- about a 200 mile swath of snow, sleet and pellets with lots of salt trucks. The interesting thing was in Indiana it was sunny when we left and in northern Michigan it was sunny when we arrived. Just in-between was the problem- all headed to the east coast!

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## andynap

No one here knows what is going to happen or when. Some snow, maybe a lot, maybe not. In the morning, maybe afternoon probably night. Monday maybe Tuesday. l'll salt the driveway tonight anyway.

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## MIke R

> They are now saying up to two feet of Snow with this storm and 50 
> mph winds. Don't like this




I understand but boy oh boy do we need it up here....the mountain is in pretty crappy  shape ....third driest December/January on record.....this will really help us......

I tentatively have a game up on the  Canadian  border  Tuesday......I don't think so

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## Peter NJ

They are saying its a strong possibility this thing stalls right off the NJ coast which means we get dumped on with blizzard conditions. Mike I hope it makes it up to you guys I can imagine how bad you folks need it

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## MIke R

Yesterday's  storm  missed us..TWO EXITS SOUTH OF THE RESORT was the stop line......we couldn't believe it

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## andynap

One thing everyone is in agreement- the shore is getting killed

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## MIke R

Yep.....again....my daughter is not pleased

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## Peter NJ

Just walked over to the beach its 50 here and sunny hard to believe how quickly this weather is gonna turn...You could get fried at the beach today the sun is so strong

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## MIke R

Dont worry.....
Its coming

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## MIke R

The forecast has just been updated


Blizzard Warning 

18 -25 inches 

we can only hope

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## Rosemary

Drifts 4 - 6 feet...

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## amyb

Hunker down and be safe, friends.

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## JEK

2-3 feet in NYC.

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## MrBart

be curious to see how much snow NYC area will get. The European model shows the storm as being more intense over the tri state area. I'm not sure how that will impact Boston. Also, wonder if the European model is typically more accurate. 18-24" current prediction on weather.com, last night was 20-30"

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## soyabeans

2 - 3 feet of snow in New York, will not be fun BUT i'm ready

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## GramChop

Stay safe my Yankee pals!

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## JEK

Happy to see my SFO-IAD flight left on time this morning.  Most other VX flights to the East Coast were cancelled.

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## katva

I just heard that there are large caravans of power trucks heading north from VA and south of here. Stay safe all!!!

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## amyb

Thank you, Virginia. That's the spirit!!

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## Grey

We are ready.   We have lots of food in the fridge.  Most importantly, the wine fridge is FULL!

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## debd

> We are ready.   We have lots of food in the fridge.  Most importantly, the wine fridge is FULL!



Oh, man.  Forgot that.  Got out the extra shovels, the snow rake.   Did washes.  Charged everything up.  Turned on the roof wires (whatever good that will do with 2 - 3 feet!).

Did Julianne and Dan make it down?  Anyone else going down around now?   We're still a few weeks out.

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## JEK

> We are ready.   We have lots of food in the fridge.  Most importantly, the wine fridge is FULL!



We had a false alarm in DC. A light dusting, but also a full wine fridge just in case :)

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## julianne

Still here, Deb,--our flight today was cancelled even though we had moved it up a day to try to beat the storm. C'est la vie! It is not a big deal since we stay for several weeks but I feel really sorry for people who have only one or two weeks. It is the first time it has happened to us in 27 years of visiting St. Barth--can't complain about a streak like that.

We hope to make it down on Friday. Enjoy the sunshine everyone who is there. And stay safe and warm, Deb and Jac and all those who couldn't "escape". I'm sure they are already printing tee shirts that say--"i Survived Storm Juno"--but I don't intend to buy one!

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## debd

> Still here, Deb,--our flight today was cancelled even though we had moved it up a day to try to beat the storm. C'est la vie! It is not a big deal since we stay for several weeks but I feel really sorry for people who have only one or two weeks. It is the first time it has happened to us in 27 years of visiting St. Barth--can't complain about a streak like that.
> 
> We hope to make it down on Friday. Enjoy the sunshine everyone who is there. And stay safe and warm, Deb and Jac and all those who couldn't "escape". I'm sure they are already printing tee shirts that say--"i Survived Storm Juno"--but I don't intend to buy one!



Yuck.   I was afraid that this would interfere with your travel.    Jac's idea to be down there from November through March is sounding pretty darn good 'round now.  The flood warning has been lowered to a watch.  Not looking forward to to the 2 to 3 am 50 mph gusts.

Stay safe all, and those of you already down there - do have a cocktail and soak in some sun for us up here.  MikeR - would have been much happier if it was just the ski areas seeing this.

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## MIke R

> Yuck. MikeR - would have been much happier if it was just the ski areas seeing this.



I understand......well I have the fires roaring...the generator all gassed up......a bottle of red opened....hoops on the big screen....now  we re just waiting for the show  to begins

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## julianne

The show is in its early stages here, Mike. Hope you get lots of it...and we, a little less. Thank God we have a generator because 90% of the time in storms, we lose power which is not fun. I know you will savor every snowflake!

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## JEK

Julianne,

Sorry you missed your ride to warm today! We dodged the bullet today and have just  a dusting.  After over 80 outages since 2010 we installed a whole house  natural gas generator this summer. No outages since :)

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## andynap

A couple inches so far no big deal. Waiting for the big one overnight or not.

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