# St Barts Forums > Storm Tracker >  >  Hurricane Jerry -  NHC Update

## KevinS

Below is the 11AM 9/19 update from the NHC regarding now-Hurricane Jerry.  The cyclone is forecast to track north of St Barth, but there is still a 30% chance of tropical storm force winds, and several inches of rain as well.


000
WTNT35 KNHC 191454
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT FINDS JERRY IS A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 54.4W
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbuda
* Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.  Additional watches could be issued later
today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 54.4 West. Jerry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwest
motion at a similar forward speed is expected over the next few
days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will be near or
north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday, pass north of Puerto
Rico on Saturday and east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Jerry is forecast to strengthen during the next
day before some weakening begins this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a
minimum central pressure of 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL:  Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda
northwest across St. Marteen/Anguilla into Anegada. Jerry is
forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches
with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to begin to affect
portions of the northern Leeward Islands this afternoon.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

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## KevinS

Here's the 11PM NHC update.  It looks like the forecast track of Jerry has shifted North a hair or two, and every bit helps.  There appears to be a less than 10% chance of Tropical Storm Force winds on St Barth, but there will be winds.  There will also be rain, hopefully more of the 1"-3" range, rather than the 4"-6" range

000
WTNT35 KNHC 200243
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND JERRY STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 57.2W
ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 18.0 North,
longitude 57.2 West.  Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near
16 mph (26 km/h).  A west-northwest to northwest motion at a
decreasing forward speed is expected over the next few days.  On the
forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern
Leeward Islands Friday, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday
and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts.  A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin
by late Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL:  Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda
northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada.  This rainfall
may produce life-threatening flash floods.  Jerry is forecast to
produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum
amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

----------


## KevinS

The 11AM NHC update:

000
WTNT35 KNHC 201457
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

...JERRY WEAKER BUT HEAVY RAINS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 60.3W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NE OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM ENE OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12-24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 60.3 West. Jerry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). On the forecast
track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward
Islands later today, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday,
be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday and
turn northward on Monday.

Data from the Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to
near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is
forecast during the next day or so, with some re-strengthening
possible early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure from the plane data is 990 mb
(29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest
across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods.

Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

----------


## stbartshopper

Hopefully sounds like Jerry will not do damage- just passing by.

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