# St Barts Forums > Storm Tracker >  >  T/S Karen - NHC Advisory

## KevinS

NHC advisory on Tropical Storm Karen:


000
WTNT32 KNHC 221153
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
800 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...CENTER OF KAREN PASSING JUST NORTH OF TOBAGO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 60.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF GRENADA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

Tropical Storm Warnings may be issued later today for other
portions of the Windward Islands. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely
be issued later today for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Elsewhere, interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Karen.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 60.9 West.  Karen is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue today.  A turn toward the
northwest is forecast to occur on Monday, followed by a turn toward
the north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Karen will move across
the Windward Islands today, and emerge over the southeastern
Caribbean Sea tonight. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to approach
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach those
islands within the warning area this morning and afternoon, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL:  Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

Far northeastern Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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## KevinS

Expect Karen to "visit" on Tuesday.  There appears to only be a 7%-8% chance of Tropical Storm Force winds on SBH, but, as noted in the advisory, there could be significant rainfall:

000
WTNT32 KNHC 222336
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
800 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...POORLY ORGANIZED KAREN MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 63.0W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NW OF GRENADA
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 63.0 West. Karen is
moving generally toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A
turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur later tonight or on
Monday, followed by a turn toward the north on Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Karen will continue to move away from
the Windward Islands this evening, and then move across the eastern
Caribbean Sea tonight and Monday.  On Tuesday, Karen is expected to
pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the east of the center.  The International Airport on
Grenada recently reported sustained winds of 30 mph (48 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area for the next few hours.  Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area beginning Tuesday morning.

RAINFALL:  Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.
Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.
Far northeast Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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## KevinS

085 
WTNT32 KNHC 231441
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...KAREN NOT WELL ORGANIZED BUT HEADING TOWARD PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 64.8W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 64.8 West.  Karen is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is forecast to continue today.  A turn toward the
north is expected by Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea today, and pass
pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Tuesday
morning.  Karen will move over the western Atlantic to the north
of Puerto Rico on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little overall change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions expected in the warning area by
Tuesday morning.

Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Northern Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm
totals 3 inches.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

----------


## KevinS

Météo France has a Yellow Alert up for St Martin and St Barth, with possible rain accumulations of 50-100mm (2"-4"), and winds of 30-40 km/h (18-24mph), gusting to 70-90km/h (43-56mph).

Pluie :Des averses se produisent en matinée. Elles augmentent en intensité à partir de la mi-journée et s'accompagnent d'orages. Des cumuls importants de 50 à 100 mm seront alors probables. D'autres averses orageuses sont attendues demain mardi.Vent :Le vent de sud-est puis sud souffle assez fort, de 30 à 40 km/h en moyenne. De fortes rafales, pouvant atteindre 70 à 90 km/h, se produisent au passage des averses.

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## KevinS

Now T/D Karen is passing west of SBH, but rain will still reach the island.

000
WTNT32 KNHC 240250
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Karen Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...KAREN APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 65.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen
was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 65.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15
km/h).  A turn toward the north is expected by early Tuesday, and a
northward to north-northeastward motion should continue through
Wednesday night.  On the forecast track, the center of Karen will
pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday,
and then move over the western Atlantic Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days.

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 1008 mb (29.77
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND:  Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, are expected
in the warning area by early Tuesday.  Winds could be higher on the
windward sides of hills and mountains.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

----------


## KevinS

Karen is again a Tropical Storm.  The center of the storm is well to the west of SBH, midway between St Croix and Puerto Rico, but the outer bands of rain do reach SBH.  It appears that there's been about 1/2" of rain in parts of SBH, and the NHC advisory calls for more to come.  Likewise, Météo France is still warning of the potential for 40mm/1.6" of rain to come.  Heavy seas have caused the desalinization plant to be shut down.

000
WTNT32 KNHC 241451
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...CENTER OF KAREN APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 65.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM WSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 65.8 West. Karen is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today.  A north-northeastward motion
with some increase in forward speed is forecast tonight through
Wednesday night.  On the forecast track, the center of Karen
will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this
afternoon and then move over the western Atlantic tonight and
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and surface observations is 1007 mb
(29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND:  Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected
in the warning area by late morning.  Winds could be higher on the
windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

----------


## cec1

Our Villa Manager was telling me this morning that the island again needs rain -- they're hopeful of getting some from these storms.

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## Hawke

> Our Villa Manager was telling me this morning that the island again needs rain -- they're hopeful of getting some from these storms.



Funny; I always pictured you as the villa manager, if not managing the island itself.

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## cec1

That's funny, Kent!  The REAL villa manager is the smart one -- she makes me feel like I actually do something useful!  As for the island, I've mastered "restaurant French," and my local contribution kind of runs out there.

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## amyb

Dennis gets by with a little help from his friends.

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## KevinS

> Our Villa Manager was telling me this morning that the island again needs rain -- they're hopeful of getting some from these storms.



Some areas have had a half-inch or so in the past 24 hours.  Météo France predicts much more, but I don't believe them.  I've got the airport webcam up in one corner of my screen, and a few times I've noticed cars passing by with windshield wipers on, but no apparent deluge.  http://st-barth.com/livecam6.html

Speaking of the webcam, I'm intrigued by the excavation work being done airside, just inside the fence.  There was a crew of at least six people working up until midnight last night, and a smaller crew is continuing to work today.

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## cec1

Time to call in Miss Marple!

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## KevinS

The 11PM Update.  It was raining in St Barth earlier.          Dennis, there is a report of 14.2mm of rain in Marigot, about .56 inches.  It won't fill your cistern, but it will help.



000
WTNT32 KNHC 250237
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 65.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
estimated near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 65.0 West. Karen is
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). Karen
should continue to move toward the north-northeast through Wednesday
night.  On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move away
from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands during the next few hours,
but the strong squalls which are to the south of the center will
continue to affect that area through tonight. Karen should move over
the western Atlantic later tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure was 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico, Vieques and the Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches,
isolated 10 inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND:  Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are
currently spreading across the warning area.  Winds could be higher
on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated
terrain. This winds should gradually decrease on Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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## fins85258

This storm is named after my Bride so a word of advice from the experienced, Look Out  :Embarrassment:

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