# St Barts Forums > Storm Tracker >  >  Nor'easter this week

## Peter NJ

*Dec 6: Coastal Storm a GO!*

         By *Jonathan CarrcloseAuthor: Jonathan CarrName: Jonathan Carr
Email:  j.carr@weathernj.com
Website: http://www.weathernj.com
About:  Jonathan Carr studied physics and mathematics in college as part of his computer science curriculum, not realizing at the time that it would give him insight into weather as well. These days, weather prediction is more mathematical modeling than ripple watching, but for Carr, its just as much fun.See Other Articles from this Author (145)*                December 6, 2014 14:44                            

 
*Related Articles*


Dec 6: Coastal Storm Video DiscussionDec 5: Coastal Storm UpdateWet Weekend Expected (Dec 5-7)

Were just about *72 hours from a coastal storm* impacting the coastal mid-Atlantic and NE US. *High winds and heavy rainfall are expected* for the first half of the storm before precipitation *changes to wintry form from NW to SE.* While the storm track is beginning to lock onto whats known as a *coastal hugger* there is uncertainty in timing. The low will either pass by at a consistent speed in whats known as a progressive flow or stall out and possibly even retrograde over New Jersey before moving out. The former is just a coastal storm and currently modeled by the GFS/Canadian. It would mean a Monday night-Tuesday afternoon storm. The latter would make it a noreaster and is currently modeled by the Euro/UKMET. That would mean a Monday night-Wednesday morning storm.
*Let me be crystal clear that snowfall accumulations will not be the main headline.* Parts of PA and NY State could get hit pretty hard but not in New Jersey. This is a warm system for the lower 2/3 of New Jersey. NWNJ has the best chance for rain changing to snow before ending. Given the timing uncertainty mentioned above, the outcome could mean the difference between trace amounts and significant accumulations. Away from the ocean and below 1000 feet in elevation should just see a rainy and windy period.
*The main headline will be coastal impact.* Should the faster solution verify then coastal impact will just consist of minor beach erosion with run of the mill flooding. Should the slower solution verify then the entire Jersey Shore is looking at prolonged E/NE flow which could spell coastal flooding issues, especially during the multiple high tides that will occur. Heavy rainfall would have trouble draining on barrier islands.
*The synoptic setup in my opinion favors a slower solution.* A string of high pressure systems look like they are going to form whats known as a banana high from the Great Lakes through E. Canada and into the N. Atlantic Ocean. This should slow the system down. Also, while the short range models are still out of range, their first 48-hour reliable periods are matching the Euro/UKMET initializations. Lets look at the three 24-hour UKMET model frames that surround this system:
*Tuesday Morning*


*Wednesday Morning*


*Thursday Morning*


*You can see the low pressure center move very close to the New Jersey coast as it passes by.* Given that proximity and low pressure intensity,* the coast should see gale force winds*. The National Weather Service HPC is* expecting the following liquid precipitation amounts over the next 5 days.* Keep in mind this includes probably about .50-1 inch of todays rainfall:

*In English:* Expect rain all day today and overnight. It should clear for a cool but dry Sunday. *E/NE winds will gradually increase tomorrow* heading into Monday.* Rain and wind will then move in from Monday night until at least Tuesday and possibly Wednesday morning.* Rain should be heavy with strong winds along the coast. Watch out for flooding during high tide(s). *Rain could end as snow for NWNJ first before working its way towards I-95* as the storm system departs. First accumulation map will be out tomorrow evening. Be safe! JC
*Comments*

26 comments

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## MIke R

We are absolutely jumping fior joy here......5 inches last night......an inch or two tonight........the storm  you refer to on Tuesday and then another one on Thursday 


pinch me

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## amyb

So much rain today-yuck. Dampens the urge for me to go shopping

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## Peter NJ

Amy it sounds like our coast and your long island coast are gonna get rocked...

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## Rosemary

Hang onto your hats Bettans and Peter.  I just ordered more wood...

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## Peter NJ

All the new houses on stilts will be tested as tides will be 7 to 8 feet above normal for the next few days

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## Peter NJ

The poor folks downtown will be swamped again this was early this AM

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## MIke R

10 to 18 inches of snow here...depending on the elevation 

winds to 70 mph on the Cape........

buckle up.....here we go

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## andynap

Today in Ocean City, NJ

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## amyb

That guy should move his car. He might do better getting out in the boat.

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## Peter NJ

Full moon not helping

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## Peter NJ

With all the warnings how could someone let this happen to their car? 10pm tonight will be the worst off it

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## MIke R

yikes.......

snowing really hard here at the moment

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## andynap

Hardly a big deal here. It moved a little to the east.

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## MIke R

we sent everyone home at the shops and Wendi and I are sitting in them til 5....very quiet...not many people out and about in this

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## stbartshopper

We only see the pics and tv reports. For those of you that are in it- How bad is the storm where you are? Looks like another one is on its way from the west coast!

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## MIke R

Some snow...some wind....nothing we aren't used to around here

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## Peter NJ

This storm really was a no show although I feel for the people in the flood zones for them it is very real and something all to common

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## LindaP

Glad you escaped without damage Peter......gloppy mess here!

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## JEK

Only Mike would love that look.

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## MIke R

Only Mike and the 1.1 million skiers we bring in every season.....:eagerness:

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## MIke R

Looks like more on the way for you and us tomorrow Linda......wooohooooo

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## elgreaux

New York City had some flurries pretty hard for a while this afternoon but nothing much stuck to the street or sidewalk.. cool and clear at the moment...

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## Rosemary

"All is calm,  all is bright..."  :)

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## amyb

Flurries here too. Will have to brush off the car before work

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## MIke R

2 to 4 inches here..

and I for one am damn glad the pressure from parents and teachers have stopped this ridiculous overreacting to these storms and restored some sense of rationality ....where we would normally have two snow days this week, we instead had a delayed opening and an early release on both days of the storm

even today with 2 to 4 inches predicted our middle school field trip went out and my daughters game today is on....

this is ski country for God sakes...WE GET SNOW...deal with it

finally.....they listened

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