# St Barts Forums > Storm Tracker >  >  Intriguing weather in 2018

## chris83

Winter Storm Grayson, a very large and powerful winter storm is threatening the East Coast of the United States with heavy snow, intense winds, and record-setting low temperatures. 
According to Bloomberg,*It could produce a bomb cyclone, otherwise known as a bombogenesis, a phenomenon that occurs when a systems central pressure drops steeply - 24 millibars or more - in 24 hours*. If current computer models hold, thatll start to happen somewhere off Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and continue as the storm moves north. Hurricane-force wind warnings have been posted off the coast where ships could encounter winds of 80 miles (130 kilometers) an hour and waves as high as 26 feet on Thursday.
This particular storm, which is currently developing off the coast of Florida, will devour enough warm water that it could be considered a winter hurricane by the time it leaves the Mid-Atlantic coast late Wednesday.

    Intriguing to say the least.Maybe a few of those could cool down the water in the south atlantic,to counteract "la niña"

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## andynap

Those of us who live in the East Coast have been watching this for a few days. Snow in North Florida. Hopefully it will stay to the East. I will salt my driveway tonight.

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## bkeats

Really? Must be a slow news day. Here's the lead into the BBG story:

Now that Boston has tied a 100-year-old record with seven days of highs below 20 degrees Fahrenheit, New Yorks airports have registered new lows and Chicago has enjoyed its coldest New Years Day ever, a storm is set to race up the U.S. East Coast on Thursday and dump snow along the way. Boston may see as much as 11 inches (28 centimeters), Manhattan could get 3, and Brooklyn and Queens are set for 4.

If a bomb of a storm dumps 3-11 inches of snow, what are the ones that drop 20+ called? Snowmagedon? In fact I think that has been used before. In my memory we get one of those in NYC pretty regularly. To my mind, just another nor'easter. Mr. Sullivan needed to meet a story quota.

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## chris83

> Really? Must be a slow news day. Here's the lead into the BBG story:
> 
> Now that Boston has tied a 100-year-old record with seven days of highs below 20 degrees Fahrenheit, New York’s airports have registered new lows and Chicago has enjoyed its coldest New Year’s Day ever, a storm is set to race up the U.S. East Coast on Thursday and dump snow along the way. Boston may see as much as 11 inches (28 centimeters), Manhattan could get 3



   The storm itself isn't a huge event and you are right about "slow news" days
   2017 was the warmest year ever in America.We sadly know how this ended for the caribbean.(even if other factors are also at play)
   Considering the forecast for the 2018 hurricane season,anything cooling the ocean might be relevant,specially considering the duration of the cold snap.

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## Izzy

Lived through a number of wicked bad storms but never heard of a storm with "bombogenesis" growing up on the New England coast...

The term is weather jargon that can be traced back to the 1940's. Its usage has undergone its own "bombogenesis" in recent years - some say the internet's fondness for apocalyptic terms is contributory. The increased usage has paralleled the Weather Channel's use of names (this one is Grayson) for winter storms that most of us ignore/, laugh at, or disparage. 

Hers is a diagram from a 1980 study that looked at "bombs" in the 3 preceding years, focusing on 1978-1979. And to think, we didn't even know bombs came our way.



In any event, bombogenesis may remind us that a bigger, more powerful button is not in the hand of man.

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## chris83

> Lived through a number of wicked bad storms but never heard of a storm with "bombogenesis" growing up on the New England coast...
> 
> The term is weather jargon that can be traced back to the 1940's. Its usage has undergone its own "bombogenesis" in recent years - some say the internet's fondness for apocalyptic terms is contributory.



  Check hypercane  )) quite apocalyptic

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## Izzy

> Check hypercane  )) quite apocalyptic



If an apocalypse doesn't finds us or we don't create it, at least future generations may not know how much we devoted to such concerns.

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## stbartshopper

We have been watching as well- sounds like hyper or over inflated news! Yes there is a storm but c'est la vie! Enjoy it while it lasts and dream of Amy's sunset!

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## NancySC

Not inflated here in our part of SC where snow is rare, a couple of inches or more in Bluffton, some over on Hilton Head, odd to see snow covered palms in our yard, quite frigid so Amy's Saba sunset pic is my vision today !

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## amyb

Glad I could help you through this cold spell, Nancy.

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## KevinS

> Not inflated here in our part of SC where snow is rare, a couple of inches or more in Bluffton, some over on Hilton Head, odd to see snow covered palms in our yard, quite frigid so Amy's Saba sunset pic is my vision today !



I remember a Christmas snowstorm on HIlton Head which brought about 4” of snow.  It took days to melt, and the ruts would refreeze overnight.  Lots of crashes, lots of cars in the lagoons.

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## luvtocook

We're going to get some snow in the western burbs of Philadelphia, but the real news is that it's cold as hell! 
 Cold, cold cold.....Freezing cold.  Dreaming of SBH.

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## andynap

> We're going to get some snow in the western burbs of Philadelphia, but the real news is that it's cold as hell! 
>  Cold, cold cold.....Freezing cold.  Dreaming of SBH.



You’re better off than the shore tomorrow

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## luvtocook

Agree Andy!  I LOVE the snow, but not these icy temps so much.  It's almost too cold to ski!  The Jersey shore will be welcoming this snowstorm (Grayson)?   Heading to our place in the mountains tomorrow where the wind chill is supposed to be -15 to-20!  Ouch!!

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## Izzy

> ....but the real news is that it's cold as hell!  Cold, cold cold.....Freezing cold.  Dreaming of SBH.



Trapped in ice of the ninth circle of hell, the devil is in quite a predicament. To fly and escape, he needs to flap his immense wings but the flapping of those wings creates the frigid wind that results in the ice...

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## chris83

This nor’easter—dubbed Grayson by The Weather Channel—will rank among the most impressive of recent decades in its fast development, deep low pressure, and fierce winds. Various models agreed that Grayson’s surface low would deepen by an astounding 30-40 millibars or more from late Wednesday to late Thursday, more than qualifying the midlatitude cyclone as a meteorological “bomb” (defined as 24 millibars of deepening in 24 hours). The deepening rate could be among the strongest observed off the East Coast in the last several decades of records, according to David Roth (NWS).
The extended cold that’s kept parts of the U.S. Northeast below 32°F for more than a week will continue through the coming weekend, producing some of the longest below-freezing stretches on record.

   We badly need the atlantic to cool down..Could very long cold storms do the trick and remove enough heat content ?

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## cec1

If history is an indicator, one result of "Grayson" probably will be an uptick in near-term travel to the Caribbean.  Good for airlines & local SBH business!

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## chris83

> If history is an indicator, one result of "Grayson" probably will be an uptick in near-term travel to the Caribbean.  Good for airlines & local SBH business!



   Hello Dennis

   Sadly,it is very difficult to find flights and tourists are flocking to Barbados and Mexico instead.(no surprise,to be honest ).Or skiing.
   This season is dead in the water.Numbers are going to be down 80%,or so.
   Summer 2018 not looking friendly,neither,according to reports i saw.

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## amyb

And Grayson has further cut down on flights to the Caribbean and anywhere else from the Northeast airports. Tough travel scheduling ahead.

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## Izzy

Just a regular workday for some...

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## luvtocook

http://www.pennlive.com/philadelphia...rave_snow.html

minus Wentz

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## stbartshopper

Tell that Gargoyle? to stop flapping it's wings- it is cold enough already!

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## elgreaux

> Hello Dennis
> 
>    Sadly,it is very difficult to find flights and tourists are flocking to Barbados and Mexico instead.(no surprise,to be honest ).Or skiing.
>    This season is dead in the water.Numbers are going to be down 80%,or so.
>    Summer 2018 not looking friendly,neither,according to reports i saw.



what happened to your hope and optimism

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## chris83

Météo France has issued an orange violent wind alert for the Alpes-Maritimes and the Var departments, as well as for Corsica, with gusts of over 200kph expected.

   Winds were recorded at cap Corse near 225 km/h...an all time high for Corsica. (last record was in 1993 with 216 km/h)
   225 Km/h would mean a cat 4 hurricane,in terms of intensity.

  Concerning SBH,as expected,a weak but distinct La Niña continues to hold sway across the tropical Pacific Ocean,with an impact on the caribbean weather expected end of february.

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## chris83

For those interested,this is out of the NOAA.and it's updated twice a month
   interesting,as La nina hasn't kicked in yet
   Good news for people planning to visit SBH in april,may,june

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## chris83

More spectacular weather across Europe.
http://edition.cnn.com/2018/01/19/eu...ntl/index.html

   More interesting stuff in case you are interested by weather trends (this is not a debate about warming...just facts)
In 2017, Earth experienced its third warmest surface temperature in records going back to 1880—and its warmest year on record without an El Niño event—according to NOAA.
the Japan Meteorological Agency also found that 2017 was the third warmest year in this 137-year period. 
NASA data published at midday Thursday ranked 2017 as the second warmest year on record, behind 2016 but just ahead of 2015

   Last but not least
Arctic sea ice extent during December 2017 was the second lowest in the 38-year satellite record

   2 lovely charts to end the post (courtesy NOAA)

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## chris83

Europe is now experiencing some strange weather   

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/fl...ropean-edition

    For those interested in oceans warming ...here' s a interesting video

https://youtu.be/75pSECm0eqo

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## chris83

Some reporting about St Barth and irma

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/19...station-record

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## chris83

Some good news (for the moment )

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## chris83

More intriguing data and forecasts keep coming .The UK met office,this time.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/re...-forecast-2018

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## chris83

California is wrapping up one of its driest October-to-January periods on record, and there’s little hope of moisture through at least mid-February.
California Department of Water Resources carried out its monthly high-profile check on snowpack at the benchmark Phillips Station in the central Sierra Nevada. The survey found snowpack at just 14 percent of the historical average, or just 13.6”.
The five weather stations that make up the Central Sierra precipitation index ended January at their third-driest wet season on record.
Unusually warm conditions across the West are making things worse by hastening snowmelt and evaporation. Record highs were set three days in a row this week (Sunday through Tuesday, Jan. 28-30) at the University of California, Los Angeles, where records go back to 1933.


*La Niña winters (such as the one we’re in now) tend to produce wetter-than-usual conditions across the Northwest U.S., with increasing odds of dryness as you head south. This year, the classic La Niña moisture pattern is roughly holding, except that very strong upper-level ridging across the North Pacific into western North America has shunted moisture further north than usual across the U.S. West—*  "La Niña" is the event to watch this winter.No doubt about that.

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## chris83



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## stbartshopper

After all of this talk on weather, as long as there are breezes, sunshine, some rain to keep things green and those super moons on the island- we are content!

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## chris83

> After all of this talk on weather, as long as there are breezes, sunshine, some rain to keep things green and those super moons on the island- we are content!



   very true..well said.This map should make tourists (and swimmers) happy
  But you should keep in mind that many on the island (not the tourists,of course) are watching this data,and very carefully.

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## chris83

*A massive pulse of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)* is currently over the Western Pacific. It’s the *largest such event in 40 years of recordkeeping for the western Pacific, according to NOAA**.*  As this MJO pulse moves east through the Pacific, it may help drive a chain reaction of events, including severe cold over parts of eastern Canada, *very mild air sweeping toward the North Pole, an unusually strong surface cyclone across the Arctic,* and a split in the stratospheric polar vortex by mid-February. Computer models have been struggling more than usual in their longer-range forecasts for North America during recent days. In short, we can expect some big weather events over the next several weeks, but where and when they’ll unfold remains uncertain. “Perhaps this enormous tropical signal [the MJO] explains the angst-inducing and soul-crushing volatility of recent model runs,”

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## chris83

A recent study published in Nature outlines research by a team of Yale University and University of Southhampton scientists. The team found evidence that Arctic ice loss is potentially negatively impacting the planet's largest ocean circulation system. While scientists do have some analogs as to how this may impact the world, we will be largely in uncharted territory.
AMOC is one of the largest current systems in the Atlantic Ocean and the world. Generally speaking, it transports warm and salty water northward from the tropics to South and East of Greenland. This warm water cools to ambient water temperature then sinks as it is saltier and thus denser than the relatively more fresh surrounding water. The dense mass of water sinks to the base of the North Atlantic Ocean and is pushed south along the abyss of the Atlantic Ocean.


This process whereby water is transported into the Northern Atlantic Ocean acts to distribute ocean water globally. What's more important, and the basis for concern of many scientists is this mechanism is one of the most efficient ways Earth transports heat from the tropics to the northern latitudes. The warm water transported from the tropics to the North Atlantic releases heat to the atmosphere, playing a key role in warming of western Europe. You likely have heard of one of the more popular components of the AMOC, the Gulf Stream which brings warm tropical water to the western coasts of Europe.

Evidence is growing that the comparatively cold zone within the Northern Atlantic could be due to a slowdown of this global ocean water circulation. Hence, a slowdown in the planet's ability to transfer heat from the tropics to the northern latitudes. The cold zone could be due to melting of ice in the Arctic and Greenland. This would cause a cold fresh water cap over the North Atlantic, inhibiting sinking of salty tropical waters. *This would in effect slow down the global circulation and hinder the transport of warm tropical waters north.*

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## chris83

Another very interesting article about the north pole 

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/mo...c-sea-ice-loss

  In relation with the last post (This would cause a cold fresh water cap over the North Atlantic, inhibiting sinking of salty tropical waters. This would in effect slow down the global circulation and hinder the transport of warm tropical waters north.)

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## chris83

The updated SST map...

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## chris83

Found this very interesting website http://cci-reanalyzer.org

   It has lots of maps and data,and made it easy to compare with the 1970-2000 period 
   Here is the map end of december 2017

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## chris83

here is the map 1st of september 2017   (random date )

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## chris83

Quite rare to see this

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## chris83

Irresistible

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## chris83

The updated SST anomaly map,in the caribbean

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## chris83

A weak La Niña continues in the Pacific Ocean, but may have peaked in recent weeks. Five out of eight models suggest this La Niña will end during the southern autumn.
The pulse of the MJO, which is currently moving across the tropical Pacific Ocean, may also contribute to the weakening of the current La Niña. The very strong MJO pulse has initiated a strong burst of westerly winds which are forecast to move across the Pacific Ocean in the coming weeks, potentially aiding transport of warmer water from the western Pacific to the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. If the enhanced westerly winds continue right across the tropical Pacific Ocean, they would also inhibit upwelling of cold water along the South American coastline.

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## Reed

> A weak La Niña continues in the Pacific Ocean, but may have peaked in recent weeks. Five out of eight models suggest this La Niña will end during the southern autumn.
> The pulse of the MJO, which is currently moving across the tropical Pacific Ocean, may also contribute to the weakening of the current La Niña. The very strong MJO pulse has initiated a strong burst of westerly winds which are forecast to move across the Pacific Ocean in the coming weeks, potentially aiding transport of warmer water from the western Pacific to the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. If the enhanced westerly winds continue right across the tropical Pacific Ocean, they would also inhibit upwelling of cold water along the South American coastline.




Hey Chris 83,

While all of your data is certainly interesting, I have been sticking to the old stand by method.............Step outside in the morning and go WOW it is really windy today!  Just to be sure I have made an accurate assessment, I do the same thing at night and viola, my initial daytime research is backed up. While certainly not a scientific approach, I feel like I can stand by my reporting :Wink: .

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## chris83

> Hey Chris 83,
> 
> While all of your data is certainly interesting, I have been sticking to the old stand by method.............Step outside in the morning and go WOW it is really windy today!  Just to be sure I have made an accurate assessment, I do the same thing at night and viola, my initial daytime research is backed up. While certainly not a scientific approach, I feel like I can stand by my reporting.



   It is surely the best way to get it done.Bravo.
   This thread serves a totally different purpose,to be honest.SST,MJO and "la nina" updates are mentioned for very specific reasons.

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## chris83

A deep thought for my friends in Tonga

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/ey...s-across-tonga

   Cat 4 hurricane....and what is to blame ? unusually high SST ..as usual.

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## chris83

The updated SSTs in the region
STTs are colder than usual around the north west coast of Africa

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## Jim A

Hold on, I'll be back when I get my degree in Meteorology :Confused:

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## amyb

> Hold on, I'll be back when I get my degree in Meteorology



That is funny Jim.I use the Kimberly method and open a door and step outside....

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## chris83

A video update of the Tonga islands.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane...recast-impacts

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/da...l-cyclone-gita

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## chris83

The new update on the SSTs...and a great looking african coast ....may it turn all deep blue

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## cec1

Chris . . . I admire your thoughtful efforts to inform us & can tell that you do so with great research & analysis.  Having said that, however, I need to comment that I’m seriously color blind, so the graphics don’t serve me as either of us would like!  I struggle with the color codes.  As a result, I find your periodic “Readers Digest” assesments to be most helpful!

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## chris83

> Chris . . . I admire your thoughtful efforts to inform us & can tell that you do so with great research & analysis.  Having said that, however, I need to comment that I’m seriously color blind, so the graphics don’t serve me as either of us would like!  I struggle with the color codes.  As a result, I find your periodic “Readers Digest” assesments to be most helpful!



   Cheeky )
   The more orange and red you see ,the more problems you can expect going forward 
   Blue is your new favorite color...

   The paradigm has changed ..and orange is the proof

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## chris83

A kind of "private message" for Dennis ))
  Deep blue in front of Cabo verde islands....that's what you want to see all summer )

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## chris83

Another interesting article 

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/re...ea-book-review

"“Like it or not, we will retreat from most of the world’s non-urban shorelines in the not very distant future. Our retreat options can be characterized as either difficult or catastrophic."

  A real debate concerning hotels on the beach,(restaurants and clubs too)

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## chris83

I missed that phrase in the article 

"_Do not rebuild storm-damaged buildings."_

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## chris83

The usual update...with some good news (for now)...some blue popping up on both maps.

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## amyb

Love it when lots of blue shows up on the maps.

Thanks Chris

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## chris83

Another map confirming blue spots

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## chris83

*January 2018 was the planet's fifth warmest January* since record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) on Tuesday. NASA also rated January 2018 as the fifth warmest January on record, with *the only warmer Januarys being 2016, 2017, 2007 and 2015.* Global ocean temperatures during January 2018 were the fifth warmest on record, and global land temperatures were the eighth warmest on record.

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## chris83

Arctic sea ice extent during January 2018 was the lowest in the 39-year satellite record, beating the record set in January 2017, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Near-surface air temperatures (about 2,500 feet above sea level) were unusually high over the Arctic Ocean in January, with nearly all of the region 3 degrees Celsius (5 degrees Fahrenheit) or more above average.

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## chris83

Very important for St Barth

La Niña conditions remained over the equatorial Pacific during the past month, said NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) in its February 8 monthly advisory. They predicted that the current weak La Niña event that began in August 2017 is near its end, with a 55% chance that it will transition to a neutral state during the March – May timeframe. Over the last few weeks, though, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the benchmark Niño 3.4 region (in the equatorial Pacific) have remained well below the 0.5°C-below-average benchmark that is required to qualify as a weak La Niña.

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## chris83

The usual SST updates...(slight difference on maps is linked to the anomaly metric)

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## chris83

Another incredible event 

Astonishing summer-like heat cooked the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday, smashing all-time records for February warmth in cities in at least ten states, from Georgia to Maine. At least 24 cities recorded their hottest February temperature on record on Wednesday, including New York City (78°), Hartford, CT (74°) and Concord, NH (74°). According to Weather Underground weather historian Christopher C. Burt, February 20 - 21 marked the most extraordinary heat event to ever affect the Northeastern quadrant of the U.S. during the month of February, since official records began in the late 1800s.

Pittsburgh, PA:  78°F (old record 77°F on Feb. 8, 1900; POR back to 1875)
Indianapolis, IN:  77°F (old record 76°F on Feb. 25, 2000; POR back to 1871)
Charleston, WV:  81°F (old record 80°F on Feb. 24, 2017 & previous; POR back to 1892)
Cincinnati CVG Airport:  79°F (old record 76°F on Feb. 10, 1932; POR back to 1872)

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## pascaleschmidt

It was way too hot in NY !!!!

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## jdr

> It was way too hot in NY !!!!



And the Arctic is roasting. But in the next week, a highly anomalous, very strong block over Greenland is about to set up. It is the kind of pattern that can send cold into Europe and is conducive to major, slow-moving snowstorms along the East Coast. Just saying...

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## chris83

> And the Arctic is roasting. But in the next week, a highly anomalous, very strong block over Greenland is about to set up. It is the kind of pattern that can send cold into Europe and is conducive to major, slow-moving snowstorms along the East Coast. Just saying...



  It is sadly consistent with an arctic pole diminishing .A long and cold winter in Europe....Exactly what we are experiencing in the north of Europe.
  Will it impact underwater currents and prevent tropical waters to head north (as predicted by scientists) ? that would be major bad news going forward.
  It's quite intriguing to watch the SST anomalies on the US east coast.
  Too early to keep an eye on the TCHP,anyway

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## jdr

> It is sadly consistent with an arctic pole diminishing .A long and cold winter in Europe....Exactly what we are experiencing in the north of Europe.
>   Will it impact underwater currents and prevent tropical waters to head north (as predicted by scientists) ? that would be major bad news going forward.
>   It's quite intriguing to watch the SST anomalies on the US east coast.
>   Too early to keep an eye on the TCHP,anyway



The past 5-6 winters have followed a remarkably consistent pattern in the Northeast US, regardless of the ENSO (El Nino/La Nina) configuration: Warm falls & early winters into January (this year was one notable exception - we got off to a colder start and had a frigid early January) with long, cold late winters and spring. All of it with more frequent large storms that benefit from the combination of warm Atlantic SST and displaced arctic lobes (the dreaded "polar vortex" the media likes to hype).

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## pascaleschmidt

we are used to snowstorms in april... no big deal.

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## chris83

it seems jet streams now play a major role in northern US weather if I understood correctly 
  Seems there is a link with melting arctic ice sea ice.
  I mainly follow Caribbean weather .The area has great prospects,but climate could derail everything 
   Clearly,lots of stuff going on.

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## chris83

> we are used to snowstorms in april... no big deal.



    There s an interesting article on rising sea levels ..and they mention NY

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## pascaleschmidt

would not take much to sink most of manhattan and seashores in the area.....

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## chris83

More positive news on this front....More blue

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## chris83

A totally incredible event 

https://www.theguardian.com/environm...perature-rises

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## chris83

How busy is the atlantic this winter ? 

"This set up the hurricane force winds on the western side of the storm that are best aimed at the Caribbean and South America. Satellites haven't made a good pass through the storm, somehow, but seas are analyzed to be near 50ft."

  And more to come,apparently 

http://www.surfline.com/surf-news/se...p-larg_152007/

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## chris83

A fascinating map.
   You can sense the intensity of the heatwave in the arctic.(never seen before)
   There has also been a heatwave in Africa for Africa for a while.With strong MJOs this year,worth keeping an eye on it.

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## chris83

England's first ever red "danger to life" alert for snow and ice has been issued by the Met Office, as people are warned to avoid all but essential travel on another day of sub-zero temperatures and "blizzard-like" conditions.The highest possible extreme warning is for parts of the south west of England and south Wales. It urges residents to "take action now to keep yourself and others safe" as Storm Emma, rolling in from the Atlantic, looks poised to collide with the "Beast from the East" weather front.
As another day of severe weather left hundreds of drivers stranded overnight and more roads impassable in up to a foot of snow in Scotland and the north of England, further widespread accumulations are expected to bring up to 40cm (15in) in some areas.

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## chris83



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## amyb

Just want to report another spectacular clear and sunny day in paradise...SBH rocks.

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## cassidain

> Just want to report another spectacular clear and sunny day in paradise...SBH rocks.



oh ! that's right ! this is a saint-barth forum  :cool: 
where's that extraneous moderator ?

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## andynap

> oh ! that's right ! this is a saint-barth forum 
> where's that extraneous moderator ?



I wondered the same thing. Forum titles dont count anymore.

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## chris83



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## Dennis

> I wondered the same thing. Forum titles don’t count anymore.



Lots of comments from non-Chris83 posters earlier in the thread didn't bring your ire. 

You really should try the ignore feature.

Many of these posts are about global weather patterns that effect SBH. 

Finally, don't you people have ANYTHING else to do that sit on this forum all day, every day?

Seriously sad.

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## chris83



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## pascaleschmidt

it snowed in my home town of Nice, France..... soooo weird.

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## Reed

> it snowed in my home town of Nice, France..... soooo weird.



Nor' Easter on Nantucket.  Wind gusts up to 95.  Flooding in many areas, trees down and power was on and off last night from what I am hearing.  A couple of more high tides to deal with.

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## amyb

Is Kona safe ? Your house OK?

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## chris83

> Nor' Easter on Nantucket.  Wind gusts up to 95.  Flooding in many areas, trees down and power was on and off last night from what I am hearing.  A couple of more high tides to deal with.



The pressure was plummeting and the damaging wind gusts near hurricane force were ramping up early Friday afternoon, as a huge and powerful nor’easter rapidly intensified off the Northeast U.S. coast. “Bombogenesis” occurs when the central pressure of a storm drops at least 24 millibars (mb) in 24 hours, and Friday’s “bomb” cyclone—dubbed “Riley”—achieved that standard, with the central pressure falling 30 mb in 24 hours, to 970 mb early Friday afternoon, when its center was southeast of Nantucket Island, Massachusetts. The storm’s central pressure will fall just a few more millibars through Saturday

    Another intriguing map



  But hey,who cares about the atlantic ? ))

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## chris83

States of emergency were declared on Saturday in Massachusetts, Virginia, and Maryland, after Winter Storm Riley brought hurricane-force wind gusts, a destructive storm surge, and heavy rain and snow to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. At least seven deaths have been blamed on the storm, and more than 2 million customers lost power.

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## stbartshopper

Reed- did not realize it was that bad on Nantucket! Hope all is ok with you. It seems that weather is a story somewhere every day. I don't recall having 'weather' as a front page event so often almost year round? Let's hope all of the posts continue to be like Amy's- it "rocks" in SBH!

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## Reed

> Reed- did not realize it was that bad on Nantucket! Hope all is ok with you. It seems that weather is a story somewhere every day. I don't recall having 'weather' as a front page event so often almost year round? Let's hope all of the posts continue to be like Amy's- it "rocks" in SBH!



Thanks Hopper.  All is ok with me as I am on SBH!  Ferries are running again on Nantucket and the island will carry on.  Major flooding in town similar if not worse than the storm that took place their in January.

----------


## chris83

The updated map
  Situation in the arctic still not back to normal
  The massive heatwave over Africa might be the real issue going forward,specially with a strong cycle of MJO.

----------


## cec1

Thanks, Chris, for a map with colors that are easy to understand!

----------


## chris83

> Thanks, Chris, for a map with colors that are easy to understand!



   Hello Dennis

  I will get the ones you like later today or tomorrow.They are not out just yet .
  The last one is interesting,in any case.

----------


## chris83

Here are the new updated maps



   On this one,i put horizontal lines around the area of interest 



  You can compare with the previous one to check evolution

----------


## chris83

Consistent with the weather patterns we experience.....The gulf stream is weakening 
   East coast of the US, first on the front line.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/we...al-new-england 

   You can find higher on this thread,the potential impact for the caribbean.
    "saving the ponds" is clearly the priority going forward )))

----------


## chris83

Plenty of available tools to monitor weather 
   (Sorry,Dennis..no colors on this one) 
   The situation was slightly improving lately.Let's view the positive side..Ocean will be warmer for tourists.

----------


## chris83

Not really weather related...but same type of concern,sadly.
   Plastic in the sea/ocean 

https://youtu.be/ArYLGNe-jCA

----------


## BBT

The amount of plastic islands in the pacific is just awful.

----------


## chris83

The usual map....and always this annoying heatwave over north Africa

----------


## chris83

The usual update

----------


## chris83

“It appears La Niña is on its last legs,” noted Mike Halpert, director of the NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center, in an online video accompanying the release. Although NOAA’s La Niña Advisory was continued in the agency’s monthly diagnostic discussion on March 8, the oceanic and atmospheric fingerprints of La Niña are quickly fading. The decline has been goosed in recent weeks by a strong Madden-Julian Oscillation in the equatorial Pacific, where upper-level winds at the 200-millibar level are now mostly from the west and subsurface waters are warming.

----------


## chris83



----------


## Reed

> 



Hum..........Nantucket has had 3 Nor' Easters in the last 3 weeks with another one allegedly on the way Tuesday.

----------


## chris83

> Hum..........Nantucket has had 3 Nor' Easters in the last 3 weeks with another one allegedly on the way Tuesday.



  Stay in SBH in september...))

----------


## Reed

> Stay in SBH in september...))



Many of my fall events on Nantucket are looking like they are happening in October rather than typical September so SBH is possible although France and Croatia are in the lead should my work schedule stay as it is presently.

----------


## chris83

> Many of my fall events on Nantucket are looking like they are happening in October rather than typical September so SBH is possible although France and Croatia are in the lead should my work schedule stay as it is presently.



   Because of the summer forecast,I can only suggest you pick Croatia or south of France ..Sbh will not be the place to be.

----------


## chris83

February 2018 was the planet's eleventh warmest February since record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) on Monday. NASA rated February 2018 as tied for the sixth warmest February on record, with the only warmer Februarys being 2016, 2017, 1998, 2015, and 2010. The difference in rankings between NASA and NOAA is mostly due to how they handle data-sparse regions such as the Arctic, where few surface weather stations exist. The rankings for February were cooler than we've seen in recent years thanks to the presence of colder weather than average over much of North America, Europe, and east Asia, plus the presence of cool ocean temperatures over the Eastern Pacific from a weak La Niña event for the second consecutive winter.
*Global ocean temperatures during February 2018 were the seventh warmest on record,* and global land temperatures were the fifteenth warmest on record.

----------


## chris83

Odds for an El Niño event to form are predicted to increase as we head towards the fall and winter of 2018, with the latest CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Forecast calling for a *1 in 3 chance of an El Niño event during the August-September-October peak of the Northern Hemisphere hurricane season. El Niño events typically reduce Atlantic hurricane activity*, due to an increase in wind shear over the tropical Atlantic.

----------


## chris83

*Arctic sea ice extent during February 2018 was the lowest in the 39-year satellite record*, beating the record set in February 2017, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). This is the second consecutive month that a new monthly record for ice extent has been set in the Arctic.

----------


## chris83

A quick post about planet earth this morning ...the last white rhino is gone



  The massive heatwave in north Africa still on



   And we also learned that 30% of french birds are now "missing" (after 75% of insects)

http://www.lefigaro.fr/sciences/2018...francaises.php

----------


## amyb

That is one heartbreaking photo of the last white rhino. 

FOR RIGHT NOW YOU CAN COLOR ME BLUE.

----------


## chris83

According to the new forecast,it will be US mainland getting the worst of the hurricane season .Guys,get ready as forecast is violent

----------


## chris83



----------


## cec1

I don't like this trend!

----------


## chris83

> I don't like this trend!



    Weather in the atlantic has been deemed irrelevant ) nothing to worry about.



   Interestingly,the heatwave is ending in north Africa ..and the Antarctic is now much warmer than usual 
   No one cares.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-2...oating/9567922

   Hedging your bets on beaches does seem more and more relevant.

----------


## chris83

Incredible antarctic..4 degrees warmer than usual.End of the heatwave over north Africa.
   Some good news (for the moment ) on water temperature between the 10th and 20th parallel .(no map,too lazy)

----------


## cec1

Florida’s looking ok in your latest map . . . happy news!

----------


## chris83

Difficult not to love the big blue

----------


## chris83

Blue confirmed in front of Africa...but it seems the heatwave is coming back over north Africa,already.
   La nina still active,sadly.....we badly need El nino to kick in asap

----------


## chris83

Disruptive tidal flooding that now affects the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coastlines on 3 to 6 days per year will strike as often as 80 to 180 days a year by the 2040s, according to a major report from NOAA’s National Ocean Service released in February. These increases will be driven mainly by global sea level rise, the report notes

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/noaa-report-todays-damaging-floods-will-be-tomorrows-high-tides

  My favorite part of the article:Based on years of polling from Gallup and the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, a stubborn 30% to 35% of Americans do not believe or aren't sure that human activity is the main cause of global warming

    As i said several times,it is crucial for St Barth to hedge its bets about beaches.Every data and forecast shows "Danger rising" ..and fast.

----------


## cassidain

> My favorite part of the article:Based on years of polling from Gallup and the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, a stubborn 30% to 35% of Americans do not believe or aren't sure that human activity is the main cause of global warming



I might respond, but a royal friend recently reminded me that it's a waste of time to try to teach pigs to sing, and it only annoys the pig.

----------


## chris83

Some impressive images of Sargasses in the caribbean.

----------


## amyb

Yuck!

----------


## chris83

A few more then )) 
  Really spectacular

----------


## chris83

Poles (north and south) warming

----------


## chris83

Guadeloupe...the place to be 

https://vimeo.com/262078975

----------


## chris83

Not much change along the coast of Africa...still blue.
   heatwave is back over northern Africa.Difficult to know how it will impact hurricane season...More sand and dry air  ? or more spin ? 
   All forecasts i saw mention early systems this year.

----------


## chris83

Another interesting map,before the beginning of hurricane season 



   if you wonder why it's interesting 


Hundreds of millions of tons of dust are picked up from the deserts of Africa and blown across the Atlantic Ocean each year. That dust helps build beaches in the Caribbean and fertilizes soils in the Amazon. It affects air quality in North and South America. And some say dust storms might play a role in the suppression of hurricanes and the decline of coral reefs.


*On short-term scales, dry air masses from Africa can sap the moisture-collecting energy of storm systems over the ocean. On the longer scale (years or longer), more dust can mean fewer storms because it blocks incoming sunlight, leading to cooler ocean temperatures*

----------


## cec1

Very interesting.  Is any of this weather stuff a predictor of sargassum around SBH?

----------


## chris83

> Very interesting.  Is any of this weather stuff a predictor of sargassum around SBH?



   No..sargassum have to do with Brazil,wind and currents ..
   St Barth being up north doesn't get the worst of it 
   You can have floating islands several meters high ...as usual ,no one and nothing is ready to deal with it ))

----------


## cec1

Very interesting!  I can’t, nonetheless, complain about Brazil . . . it sends many visitors to SBH, & when we had The Normandie, they were among our very best guests — uniformly courteous, respectful of property, nicely dressed, strong fluency in English, & thoughtful in remembering to tip the maid.

----------


## chris83

By the way,Copa airlines is reopening flights to SXM beginning of june...we well might see brasilians coming back to SBH very soon.

----------


## chris83

Blue slowly disappearing ((( 
   New forecast for hurricane season 2018:14/7/3  ACE 130

----------


## chris83

Another forecast gives 12/6/2 and ACE 84
In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects one tropical storm and no hurricanes
   El Nino is still a possibility ,but remote .

----------


## chris83

Attachment 45980

  More of the same:massive heatwave over north Africa..hopefully it will send lots of sand over the atlantic 
  And north and south pole really warm.

----------


## chris83

Some very interesting talks the last few days with prospective buyers on the island.
  As i expected,the fact that the island is "open for tourism",compared to the other islands hit by hurricanes last year,is a major factor.
  Florida and lots of coastal areas on the US east coast are perceived as too risky,which is not that surprising when you read the data about rising sea levels in some areas.The north atlantic is much warmer than usual,so you can expect the heat content in those areas to be strongly up.Same is true about the gulf of Mexico.

  Interestingly,half of the island can be offline for tourism (cul de sac,Flamands,Toiny and so on)..no one cares..It's all about Gustavia,Saline and shell beach and beach restaurants.
  Quite a few sales taking place lately,and a lot of people searching,including a new type of buyer:baby boomers retiring and looking for a safe place.
  Depending on the upcoming hurricane season,i would tend to think real estate prices are about to pop up quite sharply if St Barth is sparred this summer. 
   St Barth luck might be about to change .Intriguing period.

----------


## cec1

> . . . Quite a few sales taking place lately,and a lot of people searching,including a new type of buyer:baby boomers retiring and looking for a safe place. . . .



If, as you describe, there's a "baby boomer" bubble in the real estate market, I can understand . . . security in a safe, friendly, beautiful, civilized place.  Being part of the subject generation, however, I personally find that I have growing -- though not inordinate -- concern about medical care on the island.  I have been hospitalized on St. Barths on a couple of occasions, including once in connection with a very serious matter.  The treatment and facilities were excellent . . . most particularly in view of French laws relating to hospital facilities and practices and the small size and remoteness of St. Barths.  Experience, nevertheless, has taught me to be very mindful of health issues, both as I prepare to go to SBH and when on the island (a big part of the latter is a great afternoon nap!).

----------


## KevinS

> ...I personally find that I have growing -- though not inordinate -- concern about medical care on the island.



As we age, and become less "bullet proof" than we mentally were in our younger years, that does indeed become a concern.  So does the $25K+ cost of a Medevac, if needed.  I've been subscribing to Medevac coverage for several years now.

----------


## chris83

Healthcare is clearly an issue when living on a tiny island,but retiring baby boomers planning to buy a 10 million euros house in the caribbean probably have serious insurance coverage,as KevinS mentioned.
   Security,both for them and their investment,is probably their main concern.Hilly islands are clearer safer in my opinion.
   St Barth is clearly not "bullet proof",but is doing much better than other islands hit by hurricanes last year.
   It is now a question of luck for those islands.Where will the next big one hit ? which island will be knocked out for the next 3 years ? 

   Having ultra high end villas,rather small beaches,and a rich collectivity are also a major bonus,considering the new Sargassum problem.

----------


## chris83



----------


## chris83

More fascinating weather.Arctic 3 degrees warmer than usual ,for weeks now.
    Heatwave back over north Africa ..and sending lots of dry and sandy air over the atlantic

----------


## cec1

Is dry & sandy air over the Atlantic good or bad for Caribbean & Eastern US?

----------


## amyb

Is this what is  referred to as the Sahara sands/winds?

----------


## chris83

> Is this what is  referred to as the Sahara sands/winds?



   Saharan air layer is the way to google it 
   To answer Dennis ,dry air helps preventing tropical storms and tends to keep water cooler ..it usually dissipates mid august 
   This year,they expect an early system forming ..I hope dry air will help keeping it "low intensity"

----------


## KevinS

There are pluses and minuses to everything.  The Saharan Air Layer may help reduce the possibility of tropical cyclones, but it also reduces visibility, can irritate people’s airways, and may be problematic for those with breathing issues such as Asthma and COPD.

----------


## chris83

> There are pluses and minuses to everything.  The Saharan Air Layer may help reduce the possibility of tropical cyclones, but it also reduces visibility, can irritate people’s airways, and may be problematic for those with breathing issues such as Asthma and COPD.



    True ..but it rarely gets that thick over the Caribbean ..I saw it only once or twice kind of bad...
    I prefer airway irritation to Maria to be honest

----------


## chris83

To follow up about my post on real estate...things are heating up quickly....I saw 2 apartments got sold at Colony club ,with asking prices over 20.000 euros per sqm2...now,land near Gustavia selling for more than 2000 euros/sqm2 ...house in ST Jean getting multiple bids and selling very near asking price..
   With events on the verge of turning ugly in the middle east,and no fly zone in the are beginning this week end,more than ever,St Barth turning into "safe haven"
   There is also a pick up in rentals for the summer,according to friends....
   Maybe bad luck is finally ending and good times will soon be back.

----------


## BBT

The names Harvey, Irma, Marie and Nate will be retired and never used for an Atlantic Trooical Storm or Hurricane

----------


## chris83

> The names Harvey, Irma, Marie and Nate will be retired and never used for an Atlantic Trooical Storm or Hurricane



    This year,the potential candidates....
Alberto,Beryl,Chris,Debby,Ernesto,Florence,Gordon,Helene,Isaac,Joyce,Kirk,Leslie,Michael,Nadine,Oscar,Patty,Rafael,Sara,Tony,Valerie,William

----------


## amyb

The one that is not retired and  that surprises me is Isaac--the storm that devastated Texas Gulf. I think Galveston took the biggest hit in that one.

PS--Was there a book ISAAC'S STORM?  Someone predicted it and warned the people of its devastating strength, and then he  was ignored.

----------


## chris83

There were quite a few rumors Norwegian was planning to open a London-SXM flight.
   Sadly,the plans seem to have been postponed "“Norwegian will continue to pursue further route expansion from London to South America and Asia,”  said in a statement"
   Even worse,the most expensive airline in the world (British Airways) is planning to buy them.

----------


## chris83

Lots of people (still) think Irma was the worst hurricane of 2017 in the atlantic.
    Here's the latest on hurricane Maria.The terrifying hurricane that hit Dominica and Puerto Rico (among others) and brushed St Barth 


https://www.wunderground.com/news/20..._ven=hp-slot-5

   Conclusion :"On a eu chaud"

----------


## chris83

Totally fascinating...(and not surprising as i heard about it 2 decades ago)

https://www.wunderground.com/news/20..._ven=hp-slot-2

----------


## chris83

Hilarious...and not surprising )

----------


## chris83

The usual photos....I am still glad to see quite a lot of blue between the 10 and 20th parallel...
   I would worry about living in the gulf of Mexico....months of warm water there,way above normal.The heat content must be through the roof.
   Arctic pole still extremely warm (+2.7 degrees)....How much ice will be left this summer ? 
   Heatwave over north Africa seems to bring lots of saharan air over the atlantic....

----------


## chris83

Potential clients for St Barth 

A blizzard that would have been impressive in January knocked Upper Midwesterners for a loop from Friday into the weekend, with record snowfall amounts for any April across wide areas. Winds gusted to more than 40 mph with snowfall rates of 2"/hour or more in some locations. The National Weather Service office in Green Bay, Wisconsin, called it a “once-in-a-lifetime snowstorm.”  Snow totals for Wisconsin included 31.6" near Carlsville, 30.6" at Tigerton, and 30.5" near Stiles.
According to weather.com, at least three deaths have resulted from the storm, dubbed Xanto by the Weather Channel. Freezing rain and high winds along a front extending east from Xanto brought down trees and knocked out power across parts of Michigan, southern Ontario, and upstate New York. As of midday Monday, some 229,000 utility customers across Michigan remained without power. The Detroit News labeled the storm a “mini-apocalypse…that included flooded freeways, power outages, ice-encrusted buildings and fires started by downed power lines.”
Xanto not only demolished April snow records—it was one of the heaviest snowstorms ever observed at any time of the year at several locations.

----------


## chris83

Check temperatures in arctic and antarctic....spectacular once again

----------


## cec1

The storm you describe, Chris, also dropped record April snowfall in Minneapolis during the week-end . . . 14.9 inches between Friday morning & Sunday evening.  It was the 12th biggest snowfall in history of the “Twin Cities.”

----------


## chris83

The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season will be significantly more active than average, researchers at North Carolina State University said Monday.[COLOR=#666666 !important]
2[/COLOR]The season should see 14 to 18 tropical storms and hurricanes forming in the Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, said Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences

Since 1950, the average for named storms in a year has been 11.
Of those named storms, seven to 11 may grow strong enough to become hurricanes, with the possibility of three to five storms becoming major hurricanes, Xie said.

----------


## cec1

It’d be cool if he could tell us where & when!

----------


## chris83

> It’d be cool if he could tell us where & when!



  More detailed previsions are on the way beginning of june.It seems US east coast will get several massive systems,according to forecasts .
   There' s still hope El Nino will kick in soon.

----------


## chris83

We are now ENSO neutral apparently (La nina totally fading)

   But look at this  (read numbers on the right)

----------


## chris83

France and Netherlands aren't doing anything for St Marteen
   UK nothing for Anguilla
   Well,America not doing better in Puerto Rico,it seems 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...wing-hurricane

----------


## didier

shouldn't this intriguing weather in 2018 be out on a ledge somewhere?

----------


## chris83

Do rising temperatures have a real impact on the planet and the ocean ? 

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-04660-w

    A potential future headache for islands in the caribbean relying on diving for tourism. 
   It probably also explains the death of the coral in many locations around St Barth 

  Also in "Nature", we learn that ocean plastic pollution within the GPGP (Great Pacific Garbage Patch) is increasing exponentially and at a faster rate than in surrounding waters.Global annual plastic consumption has now reached over 320 million tonnes with _more plastic produced in the last decade than ever before_

----------


## chris83

March 2018 was the planet's fifth warmest March since record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) on Wednesday. NASA rated March 2018 as the sixth warmest March on record, with the only warmer March months being 2016, 2017, 2010, 2002, and 2015. The rankings for March were cooler than we've seen in recent years thanks to the presence of colder weather than average over much of Europe, plus the presence of cool ocean temperatures over the Eastern Pacific from a weak La Niña event.

  As expected 
Arctic sea ice extent during March 2018 was the second lowest in the 40-year satellite record, behind the record set in March 2017, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

  Hopefully some positive news 
La Niña conditions remained but weakened over the equatorial Pacific during the past month, said NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) in its April 12 monthly advisory. NOAA predicted that the current weak La Niña event that began in August 2017 is near its end, with a 55% chance that it will transition to a neutral state by May (these are the same odds that they gave in their February outlook).
Global ocean temperatures during March 2018 were the fifth warmest on record, and global land temperatures were the seventh warmest on record.

----------


## chris83

> Itd be cool if he could tell us where & when!



   Hello Dennis

  You can spend a few dollars to know what will happen and where with them 

http://www.globalweatheroscillations...urriicane-zone

   Useful

----------


## chris83

Still some blue between the 10th and 20th....but for how long ?

----------


## chris83

A new forecast is out 

The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to feature a nearly average number of hurricanes and tropical storms, according to a seasonal outlook released by The Weather Company, an IBM Business.
The Weather Company expects 13 named storms throughout the season, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater intensity.

  As some were wondering why those maps ...here's the answer


A pattern of cooler-than-average water temperatures has developed in the eastern Atlantic and, to a lesser extent, in the central northern Atlantic. 
The Weather Company compared anomalies in April for inactive vs. active hurricane seasons and found that the current pattern more closely represents inactive hurricane seasons. 

Keep in mind, it isn't anomalous water temperatures that create or hinder tropical cyclone development, but rather actual temperatures that affect tropical storms and hurricanes.
Temperatures in the space between the Lesser Antilles and Africa are supportive for tropical growth nearly year-round, but the warmer the water in that region, the more likely a tropical cyclone is to develop there, all other factors (wind shear, atmospheric moisture, forward speed, etc.) held constant.
Should this pattern of cooler-than-average ocean temperatures continue into the heart of hurricane season (August, September and October), we can expect less tropical activity west of Africa.

----------


## chris83

More fascinating predictions are forecasts ...one for 2022.

  And a short resume 

Averaged over the five-year period 2018-2022, forecast patterns suggest enhanced warming over land, and at high northern latitudes. There is some indication of continued cool conditions in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean and enhanced warming in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. Current relatively cool conditions in the North Atlantic sub-polar gyre are predicted to return to more normal conditions with_ potentially important climate impacts over Europe, America and Africa._During the five-year period 2018-2022, global average temperature is expected to remain high and is very likely to be between 0.96°C and 1.54°C above the pre-industrial average period from 1850-1900.  This compares with an anomaly of +1.14 ± 0.1 °C observed in 2016, currently the warmest year on record. There is a small (~10%) chance of one year temporarily exceeding 1.5°C.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/lo...heres-one-2022

  TA-DA

----------


## chris83

Quite fascinating 
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...imes&smtyp=cur

----------


## chris83

A bit of blue left..fingers crossed

----------


## chris83

> Quite fascinating 
> https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...imes&smtyp=cur



General electric will run tests on giant turbines in the UK 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...d-turbines-uk/

----------


## chris83

More of the same...Heatwave over north Africa...and very warm around the poles.

----------


## chris83

Should the island increase investments,preparations for future hurricanes ? 

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/wi...ger-hurricanes

 Computer modeling work consistently indicates that greenhouse warming will increase the average intensity of global tropical cyclones by 2 - 11% by 2100, with an increase in the number of Category 4 and 5 storms (though the majority of the models predict that the number of weaker tropical cyclones will decrease). Global warming is also expected to make tropical cyclones rainier, with up to 20% more precipitation falling within 100 km of the storm center

  Imagine Maria with 20% more rain.
  1.2 trillions gallons of water instead of a trillion....mind blowing

----------


## chris83

Private message for Dennis

----------


## chris83



----------


## chris83

Honestly,this looks really good..

----------


## chris83

The National Weather Service in Hawaii reported on Wednesday that preliminary data from a rain gauge on the north shore of Kauai at Waipa, one mile west of Hanalei, received 49.69” of rainfall over the 24-hour period ending at 12:45 pm April 15. If verified, this would break the all-time U.S. 24-hour rainfall record of 43.00” in Alvin, Texas set on July 25 – 26, 1979, during Tropical Storm Claudette.

    that's 1.25 meter of water ..WOW....incredible

----------


## GMP62

That's just unimaginable...holy cow!

----------


## chris83

A  comment about the seaweed landing on the island,as the journal de St Barth covered it this week
    cost for the collectivity in 2017  :Embarrassment: ver a million euros
    march 2018:41 tons 
    1-15th of april:29 tons

    Another looming threat for the caribbean islands ..and another reason not to buy a house on the beach.

----------


## chris83

For all the people of St Barth and frequent visitors...some good news 

[ATTACH]46222[/ATTAC

----------


## Izzy

More than 140 children and 200 juvenile llamas - proposed to have been done in hopes of ending torrential rains and other effects of El Niño about 550 years ago.

----------


## chris83

> More than 140 children and 200 juvenile llamas - proposed to have been done in hopes of ending torrential rains and other effects of El Niño about 550 years ago.



   Are you trying to suggest we should give it a try ? ))

----------


## Izzy

> Are you trying to suggest we should give it a try ? ))



Would we if we believed it would work?

Another approach that brings up its own ethical questions - "population engineering, the intentional manipulation of the size and structure of  human populations, is a practical and morally justifiable means to help ameliorate the threat of climate change."

The author notes in this NPR feature, reducing global fertility by half a child per woman "could be the thing that saves us" and argues this here:

"If I release a murderer from prison, knowing full well that he intends to kill innocent people, then I bear some responsibility for those deaths  even though the killer is also fully responsible. My having released him doesnt make him less responsible (he did it!). But his doing it doesnt eliminate my responsibility either.  

Something similar is true, I think, when it comes to having children: Once my daughter is an autonomous agent, she will be responsible for her emissions. But that doesnt negate my responsibility. Moral responsibility simply isnt mathematical."

----------


## chris83

[QUOTE=Izzy;993239]Would we if we believed it would work?

The author notes in this NPR feature, reducing global fertility by half a child per woman "could be the thing that saves us" and argues this here:

    A real fun debate for endless dinners )) 
    Rebellion is beginning .Brexit was one sign.You now see protests in Italy or Spain against tourism.(and legal decisions to fight it) 
    It's also a debate in St Barth

----------


## chris83

The heatwave over north Africa has been quite incredible this winter....no end in sight.
   We will see the result soon, with the sand levels over the atlantic.

----------


## chris83

A quick note on the islands

    They have started working on the roof in Juliana airport (waterproofing it before the season)
    The Delta flight was fully booked (mainly tourists).Very quick to cross immigration and connect as usual.
    Quite a lot of sargassum drifting around the island but not massive packs.
    1 small yacht in the harbor.....eww....
    Lots of traffic and noise linked to rebuilding,building and so on.Trucks everywhere ...The "quiet" island is officially dead ,thank god.
   Isola 60% full last night (for 1 service)...food excellent as usual.
   2 large groups of young brasilians....The opening of Nikki beach is bringing back the young crowd,finally...Copa has reopened 2 flights a week (and 4 this summer)
   According to rumors,bookings are slowly picking up for this summer,and for winter 2019

----------


## chris83

It's official....the blue is back
   Bad news:the first tropical system might form this week over Puerto Rico and bring flooding there

----------


## Reed

> It's official....the blue is back
>    Bad news:the first tropical system might form this week over Puerto Rico and bring flooding there



When you say this week in Puerto Rico..........does that mean anytime around the 10th?

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## chris83

> When you say this week in Puerto Rico..........does that mean anytime around the 10th?



Odds appear low at this time, but there is a chance that this system could develop over the weekend into a tropical or subtropical depression or storm. It could become the first named storm of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season: Alberto.
Even if a tropical or subtropical system does not develop, there will be locally heavy rainfall in portions of Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti and eastern Cuba.
Widespread rainfall totals of greater than 3 inches are possible from Puerto Rico into eastern Cuba and Jamaica, with locally more than 5 inches expected. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and mudslides.

   It should have cleared about for your departure dates,i presume

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## chris83

Another prediction out 

The Hurricane Genesis & Outlook (HUGO) Project at Coastal Carolina University anticipates a “normal to above normal” hurricane season in 2018, with a high probability of a landfall on both the U.S. East and Gulf coasts, according to its extended range forecast for the North Atlantic released Wednesday.
Based on climate factors available in April, the HUGO outlook predicts that there will be a range of 11 to 18 named tropical storms (with 15 most likely), with from 5 to 9 (with 7 most likely) becoming hurricanes, and 2 to 5 (with 3 most likely) becoming major hurricanes during the 2018 season (June 1 to Nov. 30).
For both the U.S. East Coast and the U.S. Gulf Coast, the HUGO study predicts a landfall probability range of zero to 2 for both coastlines. The most probable scenario calls for at least one hurricane landfall on the East Coast and at least one hurricane landfall on the Gulf Coast during the 2018 season.

  The 2 unknown factors (as usual)..El Nino..and the ocean temperature in the atlantic later in the season .

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## chris83

A quick post also to celebrate the island ,ROARING BACK TO LIFE
   Lots of traffic,traffic jams,noise....A mix of workers,and quite a few tourists too.
   Copa airlines has reopened the south american flights.
   The amount of construction going on is just incredible...WOW.And it also seems the real estate market is turning red hot.
   "St Barth 1970" happened in 2018 but won't happen again in 2019 (unless another major)..HOURRAH.
   With several airlines increasing capacity later this year,flying to the island will be much easier.
  The island will have ample resources to build hurricane resistant infrastructure.New shelters,electricity,fiber optic and so on.
   Fingers crossed for the hurricane season.

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## chris83

Hilarious...here we go again.
   Why not freeze building on the island ? ))

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## chris83

Wondering what it means ,and the implications ? 

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane...rricane-season

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## chris83

Carbon dioxide (CO2), the No. 1 greenhouse gas leading to man-made global warming, has reached a dubious new milestone. The level of the gas in the atmosphere, which is measured by instruments on top of Hawaii's Mauna Loa Observatory, topped 410 parts per million (ppm) for the month of April.This is the highest concentration of the heat-trapping gas ever recorded at the Observatory, where direct measurements have been taking place for more than 60 years, giving us the longest detailed record.

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## chris83

No real change...still looking good.
   It seems a massive arrival of sargassum is on the way during the next 48 hours...(already visible from my terrasse)

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## chris83

A quick updata about food on the island ..best place on the island for the moment ? Fish corner ..

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## chris83

Saline beach after the construction boom

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## GMP62

> A quick updata about food on the island ..best place on the island for the moment ? Fish corner ..



The frites look amazing but what do they have to do with weather??

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## chris83

> The frites look amazing but what do they have to do with weather??



   It is just an extra bonus .if you are curious about  weather ,you should be curious about best food on the island (theoretically )

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## chris83

here we go,guys.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on June 1, but if recent long-range runs of the GFS model are correct,_ the season could get off to an early start. The GFS model has been predicting that late next week, an area of disturbed weather over Central America will act as the seed to get a tropical storm spinning in the Western Caribbean. Water temperatures there are near 28°C (82°F)—about 0.5°C above average, and plenty warm enough to support a hurricane._ The subtropical jet stream—which is typically located over the Caribbean in May, creating high wind shear that interferes with hurricane development—is predicted to lift northwards by late next week, creating conditions favorable for tropical cyclone genesis. However, the long range runs of the European model have not been supporting this idea, and the GFS forecasts of a tropical storm in the Caribbean late next week should be viewed as interesting, but improbable—worth lifting one eyebrow at, but not two.

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## chris83



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## chris83

A quick update from the island...A near full Isola last night.A mix of locals and tourists.Very good food and service as usual.

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## chris83

A quick tour of the island yesterday afternoon....Building everywhere,including over Gouverneur beach.Lots of work on road,burying the grid .Everybody trying to get ready for the 2018-2019 as pre bookings seem promising.
  St Barth 2020 is on the way...and it won't look like St Barth 1970 )))
  More like Semyanak..Hourrah.

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## LuckyKid

> A quick updata about food on the island ..best place on the island for the moment ? Fish corner ..



 :thumb up: 

Fish Corner was one of best meals this trip.

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## chris83

I wrote several times about the scary phenomena of rapid intensification ..here's an interesting study about it

https://bit.ly/2IwP5Ms?cc=22e670d199..._ven=hp-slot-1

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## chris83

Mahi Mahi à la tahitienne at fish quarter ..fully booked for first service

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## chris83

trinidad and Tobago today

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## chris83

More fascinating events...What about another heatwave in the arctic ? 

https://weather.com/news/climate/vid...rmal-in-arctic

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## chris83

Even wondered what happened when throwing plastic in the sea or leaving it on the beach ?

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## chris83

Les scientifiques ont mesuré ce qui pourrait être la plus haute vague jamais recensée dans l'hémisphère Sud, un monstre de 23,8 mètres de haut, soit l'équivalent d'un immeuble de huit étages. Elle a été enregistrée mardi dans l'océan Austral, réputé pour la violence de ses tempêtes, près de Campbell Island, à environ 700 kilomètres au sud de la Nouvelle-Zélande, a annoncé MetOcean Solutions, un consultant en océanographie.

(highest wave ever recorded in southern hemisphere:almost 24 meters high)

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## chris83

Climate change in California (and state fighting it )

https://weather.com/science/environm...nels-new-homes

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## chris83

Massive heatwave in south pole (again)...heatwave is back over north Africa
   Luckily,water is still cold on the east coast of Africa and mid atlantic

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## chris83

No threat to the island 
   But it massively sucks to have to keep an eye on these maps for the next 5-6 months.
   For the moment,the cold snap in the atlantic ocean is gaining strength .It should limit heat content.(fingers crossed)

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## chris83



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## chris83

A quick post about the situation of Sargassum on the island 
   Please find 4 photos :public beach,Lorient,and the 2 St Jean beaches.
  As you can see,the weather is incredible and the beaches just perfect.

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## chris83

The usual update....as expected ,more blue appearing on the maps between the 10th and 20th parallel...

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## stbartshopper

That Sargassum in Trinidad and Tobago is terrible! Wow- are they cleaning it up as well as they do in St. Barth?

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## chris83

In Germany yesterday

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o6uE-2En_0E

   How to die very stupidly ))

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## chris83

A really great cover for NG

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## chris83

April 2018 was the planet's third-warmest April since record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) on Thursday. NASA also rated April 2018 as the third-warmest April on record. Both agencies found that the only warmer April months were in 2016 and 2017. Occasional differences in rankings between NASA and NOAA are mostly due to how they handle data-sparse regions such as the Arctic, where few surface weather stations exist.The rankings for April were cooler than we've seen in the last couple of years largely because of the presence of colder weather than average over most of North America, plus the presence of cool ocean temperatures over the Eastern Pacific from a weak La Niña event that ended in April.

   Business as usual ))

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## chris83

Arctic sea ice extent during April 2018 was the second lowest in the 40-year satellite record, behind the record set in April 2017, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

   Oceans are also warming worldwide.(but no need to prepare for stronger hurricanes ..according to some geniuses )

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## chris83

Logical consequence 

The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to feature a near-average number of hurricanes and tropical storms, according to an updated seasonal outlook released by The Weather Company, an IBM Business.
  (This is *slightly less activity compared to the April outlook*, which called for 13 named storms and six hurricanes this hurricane season)

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## chris83

A clear sign St Barth has turned a corner)
   Absolutely incredible weather for the moment on the island....Lovely blue sky,few clouds and showers,and idyllic temperatures.
   Paradise is BACK

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## chris83

A new system appearing ...Bringing heavy rain later this week .Keep an eye on it as GOM is warm



   An extraordinary photo of Hawaii...Incredible to see those immense flows of lava,destroying houses,highways.

    TS Sagar did major damage in Somalia,Massive rain was also reported
   And Oman is facing a cat 4 hurricane this week....
   Interestingly,this should trigger a major locust invasion/eruption later on.

   In St Barth,no end in sight to the fabulous weather for the moment:blue sky and fresh temperature .Just paradise.The island looks sensationnal.And no sargassum.

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## chris83

The usual update for those following the SSTs and the heat content.
   Looking rather positive for the moment .
   Please also note that the sargasses have disappeared for the moment.

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## dadto6

Delicious looking Lobsters.  Hope you are enjoying your time in Paradise!

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## chris83

> Delicious looking Lobsters.  Hope you are enjoying your time in Paradise!



  Thanks...amazing days in paradise....sublime weather,great food,and seeing the island coming back to life is just lovely.Traffic jam,construction,noise,crowded bars (for may)...the vibrant island is back 

   And news is improving

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## chris83

> Delicious looking Lobsters.  Hope you are enjoying your time in Paradise!



  I forgot to mention i tried this too...Tuna with cajun spices

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## cec1

Chris . . . it looks like you've been eating at "The Fish Corner."  Great spot, isn't it!

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## chris83

> Chris . . . it looks like you've been eating at "The Fish Corner."  Great spot, isn't it!



  Absolutely...a fine example of a vibrant island,attracting talents and investors,bringing competition and higher quality for all visitors.
  It would be great to have something similar on the beach,now that Gloriette is gone.Cold raw fish for lunch,just perfect.

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## chris83

An update about the may weather and the Sargassum

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## chris83

New forecast out ....ewwwww

Meteorologists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said they are forecasting 10-16 named storms this year, and five to nine of those storms are forecast to become hurricanes. One to four of the hurricanes are forecast to become major, meaning Category 3 or higher.

   Lots of uncertainty because of potential El nino and NAO picking up.

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## chris83

Mekunu coming to Oman....all my thoughts are with the people there.

   Very warm sea-surface temperatures of 30-32°C (86-90°F) will favor intensification on Thursday. Warm waters extended to great depth along the path of the storm, giving Mekunu a tropical cyclone heat potential in excess of 100 kilojoules per square centimeter—the kind of heat content often seen leading to rapid intensification. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate, around 15 knots.

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## chris83

Something to follow as the water in the GOM is really warm for the season.
  80% to become a TS within 5 days according to NHC

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## chris83

For those keeping track of the data

The latest monthly NOAA/IRI probabilistic ENSO forecast, issued May 18, calls for approximately a 45% chance of El Niño conditions during the peak August-September-October period of the Atlantic hurricane season.

   Fingers crossed...El niño will kick in.

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## chris83

Looking rather good for the moment...not packing massive heat content,at least.

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## chris83

A perfect example/proof of the new trend

Cyclone Mekunu was nearing landfall on the coast of southern Oman near or just west of the city of Salalah (metro population 320,000). Mekunus top 1-minute sustained winds had increased to 100 knots (115 mph) at 12Z, making it the equivalent of a *Category 3 hurricane*. If Mekunu comes ashore at that strength, or even at Category 2 strength, it will be the most powerful cyclone at landfall for this part of the Arabian Peninsula in at least the past 60 years.

Satellite loops show that *Mekunu carried out an impressive burst of intensification* as it neared the Oman coastline

   As it seems some people don't fully understand the link between ocean warnings and rapid intensification,this is what it is about ..Check data about "hurricane Maria" to get an idea.

   The same phenomena at play with Irma is also true with Mekunu :Waves estimated by JTWC as high as 32 feet will be slamming into the coast atop a significant storm surge

    This is why the collectivity is going to build a 13 millions euros shelter on high grounds.

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## chris83

A quick update on this map too...The heatwave is back again over north Africa
   One can wonder how it might impact systems coming out of Africa this summer.

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## chris83

Before Mekunu

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## chris83

After Mekunu

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## chris83

Mekunu devastating everything 

https://youtu.be/cGyUfv0xiUc

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## stbartshopper

Has Oman ever suffered from a weather event as bad as Mekunu?

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## chris83

> Has Oman ever suffered from a weather event as bad as Mekunu?



Tropical cyclones often weaken as they approach Oman and ingest dry desert air from the Arabian Peninsula. However, Oman is not invulnerable to cyclone disasters, two of which have occurred in the last 11 years.
Cyclone Phet, June 2010: Phet came ashore in far eastern Oman as a strong Category 2 storm, with top winds of 110 mph, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). At least 24 deaths were reported in Oman, with 23 other fatalities occurring in India and Pakistan as Phet moved by in a much-weakened state
Cyclone Gonu, June 2007: Gonu peaked as a Category 5 equivalent before passing just offshore of the eastern tip of Oman as a Category 1 storm and going on to become the first tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in Iran. Gonu was the strongest cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea; in Oman, it caused at least 50 deaths 
Prior to Gonu, the last significant tropical cyclone to affect Oman was in 1890, when a storm hit the Gulf of Oman coast and Muscat, dumping 270 mm of rain (10.63”) killing 700 people. 

   Now ,some data about GONU
Gone developed on June 1, 2007.With a favorable upper-level environment and warm sea surface temperatures, it rapidly intensified to attain peak winds of 235 km/h (145 mph) on June 4
There are signs that pre-monsoon (springtime) Arabian Sea cyclones have gotten stronger in the last 20 years.

    Surely a coincidence )

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## chris83

A new forecast for the hurricane season


https://www.ft.com/content/7f9d3eaa-...2-9563a0613e56

Munich Re, the world’s second largest reinsurer, is expecting significantly fewer intense tropical storms than last year as the hurricane season approaches. “Our models suggest that the 2018 hurricane season is likely to be an average one,” Munich Re executive board member Torsten Jeworrek told the Financial Times. The reinsurer said that about three large hurricanes appear likely this year, compared with twice as many in 2017. The season spans June 1 to November 30.

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## chris83

An update on the situation affecting the north atlantic
As usual for the season,the SAL is extremely strong.I also presume it's stronger than usual because of the permanent heatwave over north Africa.
The atlantic ocean is still really fresh for the season,specially between the 10th and 20th parallel (the crucial one for ST Barth)
Looking good and safe for the moment

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## stbartshopper

Looks like the worst of Alberto is behind us! Lots of flooding and a TV anchor was killed by a falling tree.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...eck/650175002/

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## chris83

> Looks like the worst of Alberto is behind us! Lots of flooding and a TV anchor was killed by a falling tree.
> 
> https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...eck/650175002/



   According to reports i saw,it seems 2 people died (a news anchor and a photojournalist).
    In Hawaii,the volcano keeps erupting amid several earthquakes, and the lava reached a highway,a geothermal plant and destroyed 82 homes.It also seems the holiday bookings for summer are down over 50%.
   Some incredible footage online (https://youtu.be/_zEDz0jZ9Yc) ,not to mention this crazy photo

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## chris83

Some very important data just came out,concerning the Paris agreement about climate change.
  Promises were great.I wrote about it in previous posts,mentioning  what it would take to make it happen.(14 millions windmills,650.000 km2 of solar panels and so on).
   Data is out for 2017.Growth reached 3.7% in G20 countries,electricity consumption up 2,1%...and CO2 emissions up...2% 
   And the trend has been pretty similar in 2015 and 2016.To reach the 2050 objectives,emissions now need* to go down 3.5% every year till 2050.

* Is Saint Barth concerned ? you bet.Check the graph below

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## chris83

A new map will now appear,during the hurricane season.It's a predictive tool,giving warnings 2 weeks in advance.

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## chris83

[COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.729412)]   Some logical news,in the new forecast 

In a revised seasonal forecast released Thursday, top scientists from Colorado State University said a near-average season is likely, with 14 named storms, of which six would become hurricanes.[/COLOR]
[COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.729412)]A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when its wind speed reaches 74 mph.[/COLOR]
[COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.729412)]This is a decrease from a forecast the group released in April. The reason for the revised predictions is that seawater in the eastern Atlantic Ocean is unusually cold for this time of year, meteorologist Phil Klotzbach said. The cool water means less fuel for hurricanes to form.[/COLOR]
[COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.729412)]In addition, a weak El Niño could also form later in the year, which tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane development.[/COLOR]

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## chris83

The usual update about the SST in the atlantic...no change here 
  And Colorado state university confirmed it was the coldest since 1994
the SST anomaly pattern now is less conducive for an active Atlantic hurricane season than was present in late March," the CSU outlook said.
The cooler-than-average waters in the tropical Atlantic are being driven by northerly winds around the eastern periphery of a strong area of high pressure over the eastern and central Atlantic Ocean. On the western periphery of this high, southerly winds have led to above-average water temperatures off the U.S. East Coast.

   This means any storm that would manage to form in the caribbean will find plenty of heat content when arriving near the US,leading to rapid or explosive intensification.
   Dear american friends,it's never too early to get ready

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## Jim A

_Get ready for an above-average hurricane season in 2018_

https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/24/us/na...wxc/index.html

_CNN)The 2018 hurricane season is shaping up to be "near- or above-normal" -- though not to the degree seen last year, when 17 named storms formed and three major hurricanes struck US soil -- the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, said Thursday._

_Ten to 16 named storms -- including five to nine hurricanes, and one to four major hurricaneswith Category 3 strength or higher -- are predicted this Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1, the federal agency predicted.... cont'd_

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## chris83

The usual update ...Always this heatwave over north Africa,triggering massive amounts of dry air over the atlantic (which is normal for the season).Much more relevant for St Barth is the last map,showing the atlantic cooling even more around the african coast and between the 10th and 20th parallel.
   For our american friends living on the east coast,water is much warmer than usual.Hopefully no hurricane will visit the area this summer.Otherwise,heat content will prove a major risk for the landing.Same goes for the GOM.

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## chris83

MIT professor weighs in on hurricanes 

"There are several areas where there's a strong scientific consensus. One is that a given hurricane is going to produce a lot more rain as the climate warms, and we're beginning to see signs of that happening. That's for a very simple reason  that a warmer atmosphere has more water vapor in it. There's really no controversy about that. We expect to see more [Hurricane] Harvey-type events as we go forward.
Another indisputable thing is that the sea level is going up, and it's almost certainly going to continue to go up. The largest killer in hurricanes is something called the storm surge, which was what flooded New Orleans during [Hurricane] Katrina and New York during [Superstorm] Sandy. Even if the storms themselves dont change, the surges are riding on an elevated sea level, and that makes them more dangerous.
There's also a reasonably strong consensus that we're going to see more intense hurricanes. That's because the theory that ties the sort of maximum speed limit that you can have on hurricanes is very clear. As you warm up the system, the speed limit goes up. We're going to see more intense hurricanes, and we are seeing signs of that in the data.
 Sudden intensification of hurricanes before a landfall is a scary scenario, and I wrote a paper last year that global warming actually makes that somewhat more likely than it has been in the past."

You can read more here
http://news.mit.edu/2017/kerry-emanu...te-future-0921

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## chris83

A new downgrade for the hurricane season 

 IBM's Weather Company currently predicts a total of 12 named storms, five hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. In 2017, there were 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin.

In fact, the 2018 cycle's predictions are below what the IBM's Weather Company forecast last month, and below the annual average of 12 storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes, compiled since 1950.

The weather expert said some of the cities at risk include some of the usual suspects like Miami, New Orleans and Norfolk, Virginia. Further north, however, New York City and Boston could also be at risk.

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## chris83

More consequences of the 2017 hurricane season and how it impacts everyone....and how companies are reacting 

Motiva Enterprises says it will not add processing capacity at its 603K bbl/day refinery in Port Arthur, Tex., a significant change in the refiner's plans from just two months ago when the company said it was considering adding as much as 900K bbl/day of processing capacity.
The decision puts Saudi-backed Motiva on a path to buy or build another refining plant in the U.S., and Reuters reports the decision stems from the Port Arthur refinery's shutdown after Hurricane Harvey flooded the area, as the company never again wants all of its capacity shut.
Other Gulf Coast refiners, including Exxon Mobil  and Total , are bolstering their storm defenses as well as adding generators and pumps at their area facilities; XOM is considering expanding its Beaumont, Tex., refinery and two others along the Gulf Coast to double its ability to process growing U.S. shale oil but has not reached a final decision.

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## chris83

The usual update ...Atlantic still cold,and the heatwave in north Africa shows no sign of weakening

----------


## chris83

Annoying news for people tracking hurricanes...

Near the first of this month, the NOAA National Weather Service discontinued the sea surface temperature dataset used by Unisys to create their daily sea surface temperature and sea surface temperature anomaly maps. As a result, Unisys has been unable to update those maps

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## chris83

Do you remember the graph about ocean temperatures ? 



After one of the coldest Aprils in U.S. history, last month delivered a stunning switch—the* warmest May for the contiguous U.S. in records going back to 1895*.

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## stbartshopper

Glad to see the hurricanes forecasted are going down. Many people need a break to recoup, repair and rest!

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## chris83

The usual update about ocean temperatures .....Still looking blue in the atlantic  ,may it stay this year

    Another note not about St Barth. I think the stock market is going to turn "user not friendly" soon,according to what i see.Play it safe,dear members of the forum .

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## stbartshopper

The new two week forecasting/predictor tool you described will be very helpful!

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## chris83

> The new two week forecasting/predictor tool you described will be very helpful!



  This one  ??

----------


## stbartshopper

I believe that is the one you were discussing earlier?

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## chris83

I will make a bet with all the members of the forum
  I bet the Nasdaq is going to rush up really quickly  to a new all time high in the next few days,and the dow will do well too with stocks like Boeing 
   But this will last only a few days

   I also make a bet about the hurricane season this year and the next 4 years...there will be no hurricanes because of the heatwave in North Africa this year...and El Nino the next 2 years

     One message....Nothing to be scared or stressed about 
   Let's judge about my abilities to predict the future ,using logic....

   And I adore St Barth
  And another message....I think we should also support Helene Bernier from now on 
  I also think the idea of Marcio Kogan building a reference house on the island is just incredible
  Did you read about new concrete like Ductal ? this is the future....and it will be amazing if we all work together to make it beautiful

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## cec1

. . . sorry to read your note, Chris.  Very best wishes to you.  I’ll look forward to your return to the ‘hood!

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## KevinS

Chris, best wishes for a speedy and satisfactory resolution.

Given that Chris is unavailable, perhaps it’s time to close this thread, and revisit it at a later date.

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## amyb

I second the motion.

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