# St Barts Forums > Storm Tracker >  >  Erika

## KevinS

Danny swung further south and fell apart, leaving only 8mm/.3" of rain on the island according to one source.  Don't count on Erika fizzling out like Danny did.  The storm is presently forecast to pass about 15 miles/25km north of SBH mid-day on Thursday.  Given the size of a tropical cyclone, 15 miles may not be much different than a direct hit.

000
WTNT35 KNHC 251730
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
200 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015

...ERIKA CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 51.8W
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Anguilla
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 51.8 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a west-
northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected over the next 48 hours.  On the forecast track, the
center of Erika will be near the Leeward Islands Wednesday night
and early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some slow strengthening is possible during the next 48
hours.  An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Erika later this afternoon.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Wednesday night or early Thursday.

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## JEK

Yep.

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## stbartshopper

Let's hope for lots of rain and a little wind!

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## KevinS

I won't say that it's almost certain at this point that SBH will be hit with Tropical Storm Force winds, but it is likely.  The forecast track seems to have dropped about 20 miles to the south, to just over 6 miles/15km south of SBH.  It's going to have to drop a lot more, or the storm will have to weaken, in order for SBH to avoid the winds.

WTNT35 KNHC 252045
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
500 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015

...ERIKA EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
TOMORROW NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 52.8W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM E OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Anguilla
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 52.8 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a west-
northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected over the next 48 hours.  On the forecast track, the
center of Erika will be near the Leeward Islands Wednesday night
and early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

*Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
*
The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft was 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


*HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Wednesday night or early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches over many of the Leeward Islands through Thursday.
*

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

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## KevinS

The last ferry out of Gustavia is at 10:30 tomorrow (Wednesday 8/26) with no service expected on Thursday.  At least one of the ferries is said to be "on the hard" at Bobby's Marina in P'burg, still there after being hauled in anticipation of Danny.  (They have big honkin' lifts at Bobby's!)

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## GramChop

Sending more prayer for safety for all in Erika's path.

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## BBT

Gustavia Harbor 
Latitude: 17°53′46″ N		
Longitude: 62°50′59″ W 


As of 11:00AM

Init  26/1500z 16.1n  57.6w   40 kt  45 mph
 12h  27/0000z 16.7n  59.9w   45 kt  50 mph
 24h  27/1200z 17.6n  63.0w   45 kt  50 mph
 36h  28/0000z 18.7n  65.9w   45 kt  50 mph
 48h  28/1200z 19.8n  68.7w   45 kt  50 mph
 72h  29/1200z 22.0n  73.7w   45 kt  50 mph
 96h  30/1200z 24.4n  77.7w   55 kt  65 mph
120h  31/1200z 26.5n  80.5w   65 kt  75 mph...inland

$$
forecaster Brown

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## KevinS

Erika's track continues to drop slightly farther south, but is still within 23 miles.  The CPA to SBH will occur sometime tomorrow morning.  A tropical cyclone covers hundreds of square miles, and is not just a point or a line on a map.  The effects of Erika should be felt on SBH well before the present estimate of 10:48AM tomorrow.

The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near *17.6N, 63.0W* or about *22.6 miles (36.4 km)* from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is  in about *22 hours and 34 minutes* from now  (Thursday, August 27 at 10:48AM AST).

The Tropical Storm Watch for SBH has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.  The rainfall hazard warning has also been increased.  "RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of *3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Friday morning*."

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## Grey

Would 3-5 inches of rain be a welcome amount or would it be "too much, too soon"?

Here's hoping that the winds won't be too bad.

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## KevinS

I can't say if 3-5" or more would be a welcome amount, or it would be too much.  The cisterns would certainly like it, but the ground may not be able to soak up that much that fast, resulting in erosion and flooding.

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## KevinS

So, let's put Ms Erica in perspective.  Have you ever had lunch at Santa Fe, and looked out to see the islands of 'Statia and Saba?  The eye of Erika is presently forecast to travel right through your view, between St Barth, Statia, and Saba.  The blue line in the image below is the forecast track. The Bottom is on Saba, and Oranjestad is on Statia.



The above image puts the forecast center of the storm in the channel between the three islands, similar to last year's Gonzalo.  

OK, here's the perspective part.  See the image below?  See the white arrow in the upper left pointing to a channel between a few tiny islands?  That's where the blue line in the above image runs, between those islands.  See the white arrow below and to the right of that?  That's the butterfly-shaped island of Guadeloupe.  St Barth has an area of about 9.6 square miles.  The much-larger Guadeloupe has an area  of about 629 square miles.  Erika?  she's the big angry-colored blob which covers tens of thousands of square miles.  So, no matter what track Erika may follow, a lot of wind and rain are coming to St Barth on Thursday, as well as to the entire area for hundreds of miles around.

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## Peter NJ

Poor Dominica has been devastated by this storm

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## BBT

Lots of flooding in Domenica

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## PIRATE40

Any on site weather reports as to rain amounts on SBH?

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## GramChop

I've read that 4 deaths are reported from Dominica.  Lord, please protect the Caribbean.

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## cec1

There have been five or six brief, heavy rain periods -- none more than 10 or 15 minutes.  Winds have been mild, with occasional heavy gusts (a potted palm tree was blown over on our deck).  The dark grey sky of earlier today has turned much brighter.  Surfers out at Lorient and Grand Fond.  Almost every business is closed . . . except, of course, Oasis -- it's a stalwart open shop, through the worst of times!

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## BBT

> There have been five or six brief, heavy rain periods -- none more than 10 or 15 minutes.  Winds have been mild, with occasional heavy gusts (a potted palm tree was blown over on our deck).  The dark grey sky of earlier today has turned much brighter.  Surfers out at Lorient and Grand Fond.  Almost every business is closed . . . except, of course, Oasis -- it's a stalwart open shop, through the worst of times!



Great to hear Dennis. It appears the worst went further south than expected.

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## amyb

Thank you intrepid field reporter! Does not sound too bad for SBH-not so for Dominica.

Stay safe and dry.

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## Peter NJ

Dominica

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## Peter NJ

Roads and bridges have washed away

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## BBT

Peter that picture is worse than the one I saw just a few hours ago. Too bad when you need rain it all comes in one bucket

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## amyb

That's a river of water..on land!!

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## beach_nut

Winds have been steady and gusty all day, and only a handful of showers. Saw a beautiful rainbow just before sunset! We are fairly close to the road and have heard cars and scooters buzzing by all day. No power outages, which is nice, considering we are stuck inside with two kids! Based on the forecast the winds will continue to die down overnight, and hopefully bring more rain. 

Went for a drive earlier and saw seaweed piled high on every beach. St. Jean has been clear all week, but is covered today. Big disgusting floating masses can be seen too. Yuck!

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## Peter NJ

14 dead 25 missing on Dominica just tragic

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## amyb

That is just awful news, Peter.

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## Peter NJ

http://www.iwnsvg.com/2015/08/28/sto...g-in-dominica/

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## Peter NJ

31 dead 21 missing that poor island

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## elgreaux

Yes very, very sad. There are some relief efforts going on to try and help but nothing brings back lost life or repairs some of this kind of damage...

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## stbartshopper

Wow- did not realize the extent of lives lost. Hope they can rebuild and recover quickly.

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## alijax757

Hievryone! now do not fall over. It is alijax757 (alisa) It has been so long since I have been on here I for my password (now recovered) As you may know Dominica was hit really hard and my heart is aching over this. My friends house was hit by 2 landslides

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## lloyd

Hi Alisa
long time!
Dominica was devastated.Anybody who wants to help can email the Diocese of the North Eastern Caribbean and Aruba,Bishop Erroll Brooks.Via the cathedral in Antigua,they are sending funds to the people of Dominica.We recently did this from the SBH church,but I'm sure any and all contributions would be very much appreciated.
LandP

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## Rosemary

Alisa, yesterday I sent funds to your friends via the information Missy sent me.  My friend Farmer is Domenican, and has kept me up to date with what is happening with 
them and the island.  The devastation is heartbreaking.  I wish peace and safe recovery to your friends and the Island of Domenica.

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## alijax757

> Hi Alisa
> long time!
> Dominica was devastated.Anybody who wants to help can email the Diocese of the North Eastern Caribbean and Aruba,Bishop Erroll Brooks.Via the cathedral in Antigua,they are sending funds to the people of Dominica.We recently did this from the SBH church,but I'm sure any and all contributions would be very much appreciated.
> LandP



Thank you for the info Lloyd...good to see people helping. I was there this past summer. My host villa/inn was heavily damaged. Food and medical supplies slow coming into her area

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## alijax757

> Alisa, yesterday I sent funds to your friends via the information Missy sent me.  My friend Farmer is Domenican, and has kept me up to date with what is happening with 
> them and the island.  The devastation is heartbreaking.  I wish peace and safe recovery to your friends and the Island of Domenica.



Rosemary I am SOOO grateful for your generosity (and missy's as well) I was in Doninica this summer and stayed at a small family owned villa named Oh LaLA dominica. It was hit  by 2 landslides. debra and her young family survived but now food and water is an issue. They need supplies in her isolated area. I pray her inn gets back on its feet. Thank you again for donating!!!

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## Rosemary

Alisa, it's a privilege to help... Xx  What our friends have been through is beyond humbling.  My friend Elwin Christopher, or Farmer, is organizing containers of water, clothing... in ST Maarten.  Best to all.

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