# St Barts Forums > Storm Tracker >  >  Hurricane Irma

## KevinS

Hurricane Irma has increased back to a Category 3 Hurricane, and is expected to strengthen further.  Current forecasts call for it to pass just North and East of St Barth, with the arrival of the storm sometime on Tuesday.  Irma will likely bring Hurricane Force Winds to St Barth.  

Meteo France has raised a Vigilance Jaune, a yellow alert, for Guadeloupe, St Barth, and St Martin.  I've exchanged messages with Rosita, and they are very concerned and are working to secure their properties and prepare in advance of the storm.


Irma is being discussed in two other threads here:

https://www.sbhonline.com/forums/sho...te-to-evacuate

https://www.sbhonline.com/forums/sho...thing-to-watch

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## MIke R

Yeah passing just north and east means northwest to north east winds  and a surge which goes from north to south which means Flamand, St Jean, Lorient, and Cul De Sac get the worst of it

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## GramChop

I am keeping all of St Barth in my thoughts and prayers.

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## Rosita

please save all a little prayer for us 
merci du fond du coeur

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## BBT



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## amyb

Rosita, you can count on it!  Be safe St Barth's friends and families....

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## le_reve

Thinking of all our friends on SBH...  please stay safe.

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## KevinS

> Yeah passing just north and east means northwest to north east winds  and a surge which goes from north to south which means Flamand, St Jean, Lorient, and Cul De Sac get the worst of it





Yes, but the winds should be less strong on that side of the hurricane than they would be if it were to pass just south and west of the island.

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## MIke R

"Should be " being the key words here ...

many of the reliable models are suggesting an east coast thrashing after it leaves the  Caribbean

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## Hulagirl202

SBH is in our thoughts and prayers. And please don't send it to Charleston SC. I've like to not have to board up twice in less than a year.

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## BAM

Prayers on the way Rosita and all on the island...

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## Maureenm

> please save all a little prayer for us 
> merci du fond du coeur



Saying prayers for you and your family Rosita. Stay safe   xoxo your Omar hurricane couple

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## BBT

The ECMWF model which has been the single most reliable model does put the center of convection right near SBH

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## amyb

Oh boy...that's not what I was hoping for, Bob.

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## BBT

> Oh boy...that's not what I was hoping for, Bob.



Nor I and don't like the path after that

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## belinda

Oh boy, well here visiting for two more weeks.. I hear from the housekeeper they are going to close the house up with us inside so we got provisions and I guess we just, Button down the hatches and hope for the best like everyone on the island is doing...., Fingers crossed and prayers ready for everyone on the island..

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## andynap

Good luck Belinda. The islanders have been thru this before so they know what to do.

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## amyb

Take care. Where on the island is your house, Belinda?

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## belinda

What else can we do except wait it out with food and water. The metal window shutters will be closed and furniture moved inside tomorrow. We have battery lights. Not sure what else we can do... Hopefully the electric will stay on... And we can all keep in touch..

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## belinda

St Jean

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## amyb

Candles? Matches? 

Wishing you well.

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## belinda

> Candles? Matches? 
> 
> Wishing you well.



Thank you. We will all come through this and the sun will rise again on this beautiful island...

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## GMP62

Lots of Prayers are going out to all Forum friends on St. Barth. Stay safe.

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## KevinS

A Hurricane Watch was certain.  A Hurricane Warning will follow as Irma gets closer, and Météo France will increase their Vigilance level from the current Jaune, to Orange, to Rouge, and to Violette:


A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy

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## carmen

Best of luck to you all. Matthew hit us hard last year. Hope this steers out to sea!

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## KevinS

The hurricane tracks which we see are a line or a cone.  The hurricane itself is hugely bigger than either the line or the cone.  This image, copied from Meteo-SBH.com, will give you an idea of the distances involved.  On the right, you see some of the leading bands of Irma.  If you look at the chain of islands, there is a tiny red circle around St Barth.  Yeah.  The image doesn't even show the ugly part of Irma yet.  





I note that Meteo-SBH.com has recently built a satellite image receiver  which is being used to download weather satellite info, including the image which I have posted above. I don't know the person who runs that site, but I've always been impressed by his/her technical expertise.  I've watched the site grow over several years, and find it fun to watch the new developments, and to monitor the new capabilities.  If you are interested in realtime weather on SBH then I recommend  Meteo-SBH.com to you.

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## Tiffany

Thinking of everyone on the island. Stay safe.

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## cec1

Wendy is scheduled to depart SBH to San Juan at 10 AM Monday morning, and as of late this afternoon, the flight is still a "go."

In a "shout out" to Tim, I have to note that he's greatly missed by Wendy . . . shared times on the island were one of her great pleasures when you lived nearby -- and, of course, there were those times when you very generously came over to help in moving furniture and closing shutters as storms of earlier years made their way to SBH.

My prayers are with Rosita & Jean-Paul, Belinda, and so many other SBH friends and acquaintances.  Although there is comfort in knowing that folks on the island have sturdy homes and know what to do to prepare for a storm, there are no "guarantees," of course.

Reporting I have received is that Irma's greatest impact is expected about 5 AM on Wednesday morning.

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## BBT



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## BBT



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## amyb

Thanks for these up to the minute reports.   That little island and its people mean a lot to so many of us. Things can be replaced, people can't. To our island friends, know that  we continue to urge you to be careful and prepared and we pray you all emerge safely from  this hurricane season of 2017.

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## stbartshopper

Belinda, Jean Paul, Rosita and everybody else on the island stay "St. Barth Strong" and be safe! Keep us apprised as the storm passes through. Smile and think of those sunshine days and rolling waves after the storm has passed!

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## KevinS

Météo France has raised the alert level to Vigilance Orange.  The graphic below explains the Vigilance levels, and contains other useful information such as emergency numbers and where the shelters are located on the island.

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## belinda

So, not to make light of a very dangerous situation brewing with Irma.  We are battened down, provisions in and candles and batteries at the ready. However being a Brit living in America and vacationing on the island we would like to lighten the mood for a few hours by watching the England game today. Anyone know where it will be on if anywhere?

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## belinda

Thank you we will all be St Barts Strong.....

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## KevinS

> So, not to make light of a very dangerous situation brewing with Irma.  We are battened down, provisions in and candles and batteries at the ready. However being a Brit living in America and vacationing on the island we would like to lighten the mood for a few hours by watching the England game today. Anyone know where it will be on if anywhere?



A few possible places come to mind.  Le Glacier in St Jean, on the Route de Saline, and L'Oubli Bar in Gustavia are two.  25 Quarter, if they're open, often has major US sporting events on, and may be able to get the England game for you.  Au Regal in Corossol may also be an option.

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## KevinS

The Vigilance Orange announcement from this morning:

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## belinda

Thank you we will check them out...

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## KevinS

As expected, there is now a Hurricane Warning in effect for St Barth.  From the NHC:

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND
NEVIS
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND SINT MAARTEN
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA

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## DPSlugger

Prayers out for Rosita and family, Belinda, and our entire St. Barts community. We are all praying for everyone in Irma's path

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## tanlines

Wishing all a safe visit from Irma. Another good site for info: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

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## julianne

All we can do from far away is to send our heartfelt thoughts and prayers for everyone on the island and in Irma's path. Stay safe!

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## amyb

Julianne,I am doing just that. Fingers crossed too.

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## tim

> Wendy is scheduled to depart SBH to San Juan at 10 AM Monday morning, and as of late this afternoon, the flight is still a "go."
> 
> In a "shout out" to Tim, I have to note that he's greatly missed by Wendy . . . shared times on the island were one of her great pleasures when you lived nearby -- and, of course, there were those times when you very generously came over to help in moving furniture and closing shutters as storms of earlier years made their way to SBH.



Those were the good old days :Big Grin:

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## Erma

Julianne - I echo your thoughts.  It's a helpless feeling to watch as the people everyone loves and (all) the islands we adore are at such risk.  Just hearing the words "could be worse than Luis" sends a chill down my spine.  I can't even make a joke about the name with so much at stake.

Rosita ~ I know you are in the throws of preparation…but when you come out I hope you can see this.  No matter the kilometers separating us nor the years since we clinked glasses in a lovely toast..you are in my heart and mind as this wicked behemoth of a storm rolls your way.  I hope you and JP stay safe and come out unscathed.  You have an army of friends sending positive thoughts for you and your neighbors safety and wellbeing. 

I know all of us will keep a close eye on the situation and thanks to anyone with information.  *Godspeed to everyone in the path.*

Erma

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## Cwater

Hunker down Emaraude Plage...and all citizens and guests of our favorite Island.

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## GaryH

Heads up...Irma is now Cat 4 and Hurricane Warning is posted for SBH

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/042036.shtml

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## TPunch42

Please know that our prayers are with you all!  Stay safe...

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## Rosita

i am so happy to hear from you Erma 
it's been a long time  :Big Grin: 
thank you so much for your lovely post 
i miss you 
bisous 

thanks to everyone of this forum for all your help 
i really appreciate it a lot 

bisous à tous 

i will keep updated ( if i have internet)

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## chris83

Please all be extra careful...All friends are praying for you.

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## rodndonna

Praying for all our friends on sbh. Please be careful and stay safe!

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## rivertrash

Our thoughts are with all the islanders and the guests of St Barth.  Hoping for the best possible outcome!

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## seasalt

Praying for all of you on the island!  Stay safe and hope the damage is minimal.

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## KevinS

Vigilance Rouge is expected to be announced at Noon on Tuesday.  Marché U (08:00 - 12:00) and the U Express in Lorient (09:00 - 12:00) will be open until that time.

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## Rosita

if we still have internet I will post update ... à bientôt 
merci pour votre soutien

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## amyb

We all care. Be safe and be strong.

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## bkeats

Looks like this is going to be a direct hit. Keeping fingers crossed that the damage isn't too bad. Keep safe everyone.

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## GramChop

My heart breaks knowing the uncertainty and anxiety that my St Barth friends are feeling at this moment.  I am in vigilant prayer for Irma to pass quickly and painlessly.

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## KevinS

I don't see any good news in the 5AM update from the NHC.  It appears that the predicted track of Irma has moved a little closer to St Barth, that Irma's a little stronger, and that predicted windspeeds are a little higher.  Webmaster JB has been working at automating the posting of the feeds from the NHC, which can be found at https://www.sbhonline.com/forums/sho...rm-Information

Looking around at various websites and webcams, I can see that preparations are being made for Irma's arrival.  The inner harbor still has 7-8 boats moored, 1 more than I saw yesterday, but most have been hauled.

http://st-barth.com/livecam3.html

There's one boat on the main quay this morning, but I don't expect that it will be there for long.  The Capitaine Danet, the local volunteer sea rescue boat, is docked in it's usual spot.  Here's hoping that they don't have to go out.

http://st-barth.com/livecam4.html

Marine Traffic shows no boats in port.  Unforgettable of George Town, who was in port yesterday, has moved to Simpson Bay Lagoon.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/...17.900/zoom:14

 There are a number of boats using Simpson Bay Lagoon as a hurricane hole. I'm sure that there are many more there, without AIS transponders, who won't show up on Marine Traffic.   That may or may not work out for them.  It didn't work so well during Luis.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/...18.061/zoom:14


 Activity at SXM looks about normal, but I see that American has scheduled an extra flight today, a sold-out flight departing for Miami at 10:30.  Some flights for tomorrow are already canceled, and Travel Alerts are posted on airline web pages.

http://www.mahobeachcam.com/

Here's the latest Vigilance update:

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## Erma

I miss you too lady!  

Well it seemed inevitable...but they just bumped her to #5.  I just hope everyone has prepared for what is about to come and that she moves out rapidly with the least damage realistically possible..

Hugs to you sweetie and be strong but smart.








> i am so happy to hear from you Erma 
> it's been a long time 
> thank you so much for your lovely post 
> i miss you 
> bisous 
> 
> thanks to everyone of this forum for all your help 
> i really appreciate it a lot 
> 
> ...

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## KevinS

Irma has intensified to Cat 5.  From the NHC:

NOAA and Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate Hurricane
Irma has intensified into an extremely dangerous Category 5
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum
winds of 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts.  A special advisory
will be issued at 800 AM AST (1200 UTC) in lieu of the scheduled
intermediate advisory for Irma.

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## KevinS

I received an email from JEK yesterday, letting me know that he had spoken with Marius, and that Marius is going to move in with one of his kids for the duration of Irma.

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## Tiffany

Just the saw the upgrade to Cat 5 on the news.  Praying for the safety of everyone on the island.  I hope the storm passes quickly.

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## Bluemoon

Thoughts and prayers with everyone on the island.

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## soyabeans

our thoughts and prayers are for those on the island...stay safe and stay dry

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## dlambe

Thoughts and prayers to everyone on the beautiful Island.

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## stbartshopper

This is the worst scenario imaginable- Cat 5 aimed directly at the island. We are listening to Radio St. Barth and watching the Earth Cams while they last. At 14 miles per hour, it looks like early tomorrow morning will be the worst. Everybody stay safe!

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## jdr

> This is the worst scenario imaginable- Cat 5 aimed directly at the island. We are listening to Radio St. Barth and watching the Earth Cams while they last. At 14 miles per hour, it looks like early tomorrow morning will be the worst. Everybody stay safe!




Indeed. I am an avid weather enthusiast (it's an obsession) and St. Barth/SXM and Anguilla are about to have the dubious distinction of taking one of the strongest direct hits of an Atlantic hurricane in history. We all appreciate the spirit of the islanders, but I hope everyone gets to the most secure locations above the surge as possible. I thought I saw the School in L'Orient listed as a shelter and that seems suicidal.

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## Erma

JDR,

Tossing out a questiondo you (or any other readers) know of a reliable resource that offers the current wind gusts?  I know this beast is up to 180 sustained and can assume gusts will top over 200but I can't put my finger on a source.  Your help, and the dire suggestion about location for the arrival of Irma, is appreciated.  I hope everyone is smart and strong during this catastrophic (latest NHC description) event.





> Indeed. I am an avid weather enthusiast (it's an obsession)

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## Jim A

Wow, this sounds horrible and scary. The news keeps getting worse. Gusts up to 220mph and sustained winds of 180. Prayers to everyone and everything in it's path. 

"The National Hurricane Center (NHC) on Tuesday called Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in NHC records."

http://abcnews.go.com/International/...ry?id=49608171

_Hurricane Irma has strengthened to a Category 5 storm and catastrophic damage is possible in the Florida Keys and southern Florida this weekend._
_Irma is packing 180 mph winds and gusts up to 220 mph as of 11 a.m. ET Tuesday and is expected to continue churning with deadly hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge across a wide swath of the Caribbean this week before moving toward southern Florida._
_The National Hurricane Center (NHC) on Tuesday called Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in NHC records._
_Hurricane warnings are in effects for islands including the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico, where the governor Tuesday called the storm unprecedented as the island braces for Irma to hit this week._
_By Sunday around 8 a.m., the hurricane is expected to be near the Florida Keys with winds of 145 mph as a Category 4 hurricane._

_ABC News_
_Hurricane Irma forecast path as of 8:30 a.m. ET Sept. 5, 2017.__As of Tuesday morning, the NHC predicts that the storm will follow a more western track, heading up the west coast of Florida; however, that still could change._
_Florida Gov. Rick Scott on Monday declared a state of emergency for every county to ensure that local governments have enough "time, resources and flexibility to get prepared for this dangerous storm," according to a statement from his office._
_Scott said in the statement that Irma is a "life-threatening" storm and Florida "must be prepared."_
_"In Florida, we always prepare for the worst and hope for the best," Scott said, "and while the exact path of Irma is not absolutely known at this time, we cannot afford to not be prepared."_
_Category 5 is the strongest hurricane category on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane strength scale. In a Category 5 storm, winds reach more than 157 mph and damage is expected to be catastrophic, with buildings and roofs destroyed._

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## chris83

Hello Erma

   You can see data updated on various websites as hurricane planes are now flying over to assess IRMA strength 3-4 times a day.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/051159.shtml  will give you the latest official update.
   Easiest way is on twitter and type "track IRMA" as the data is published as soon as it comes out
   pressure is still dropping...meaning winds are going to intensify 
   SST and heat content are also backing intensification.
   Your wind numbers are sadly correct.200 mph gusts.
   Another problem with giant waves and huge rainfalls too.According to data i saw,waves 50 feet and 8 inches of rain an hour near the eye.

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## waynek

Good luck everyone - stay safe.  Has St Barths been hit by a Category 5 hurricane in recent history?

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## jdr

> JDR,
> 
> Tossing out a question…do you (or any other readers) know of a reliable resource that offers the current wind gusts?  I know this beast is up to 180 sustained and can assume gusts will top over 200…but I can't put my finger on a source.  Your help, and the dire suggestion about location for the arrival of Irma, is appreciated.  I hope everyone is smart and strong during this catastrophic (latest NHC description) event.



Hi Erma,

While the storm is over water the NHC products are the most reliable. The "Forecast Advisory" will give the range of winds out from the center. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/

It is a very stable hurricane and there is nothing that would cause it to weaken before tomorrow morning. At this point, it looks like SBH (and SXM) won't escape the inner bands, if not the eye wall, so the sustained winds will be akin to a strong midwest tornado.

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## Erma

Chris & JDR,

Thanks for the reply. That is my go to site (NHC) but even the forecast discussion doesn't state the gusts.  The advisory just says ("with higher gusts").  I guess at some point saying ">200 mph gusts" pretty covers it  :Frown: 

The rainfall and storm/wave surge scares the sh!t out of me for our island friends.  We are all here on SBHonline for our collective love of Saint Barthélemybut most of us travel throughout the Caribbean and thus have special bonds with many of the islands.  My mind keeps replaying the memoriesand to count just how many of my beloved islands are in the path makes me sick.  I fear for the East end of Anguilla that I fell for years ago and that is about to be inundated...for Barbuda, a very special stretch of sand that has no wiggle roomVGorda and Anegada - such long ago memories but to think what it could do to that little split of land (A) of course Culebraall much loved.   Irma better not touch the most specialand hopefully far enough south to be out of the worst of her wrath, Marie Galante.  Then it is where it goes next and our Countryoh damn.

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## waynek

> Looking around at various websites and webcams, I can see that preparations are being made for Irma's arrival.  The inner harbor still has 7-8 boats moored, 1 more than I saw yesterday, but most have been hauled.
> 
> http://st-barth.com/livecam3.html
> 
> There's one boat on the main quay this morning, but I don't expect that it will be there for long.  The Capitaine Danet, the local volunteer sea rescue boat, is docked in it's usual spot.  Here's hoping that they don't have to go out.
> 
> http://st-barth.com/livecam4.html



Thanks for this.  Anyone know which cams are actually live?  Obviously livecam1 and livecam6 are not live.  Livecams 3,4,5 & 7 look like they are live.  I can't tell with camera 2 which is showing Eden Rock.  Livecam5 is of the airport and assuming that it is live it looks like all planes have been removed from SBH - unless they are very close to the airport/rental car parking lot and are out of camera range.

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## jdr

The latest run of the GFS (the main American model) is pretty much a worst-case scenario for Florida. Stays north of Cuba, then turns right and goes up the coast as a Cat 4/5. Still time for things to change but the conditions are very favorable for it to remain strong and on that general track. And not to pile on, but that could obviously hamper relief efforts to the islands if MIA and FLL are offline.

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## tanlines

Very informed thread here. Thanks to all for contributions. Does anyone know how accurate Windty wind maps and storm info is? Presents graphic view with changeable focus from wind to rain, to waves, etc. https://www.windy.com/?21.043,-54.053,3,m:e3IafHU

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## tanlines

Also, prayers for safety for all in the path of the storm.

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## waynek

A new storm, called Jose, has formed and is on a similar path as Irma.

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## jrosen

My thoughts and prayers go out to all on the island

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## Blooming Magnolia

We are praying for all of you on the island and for the island itself.

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## jdr

> Very informed thread here. Thanks to all for contributions. Does anyone know how accurate Windty wind maps and storm info is? Presents graphic view with changeable focus from wind to rain, to waves, etc. https://www.windy.com/?21.043,-54.053,3,m:e3IafHU



From the screenshot it looks like it lets you toggle between the computer model output of the European model (ECMWF) or American (GFS). This close in both would be pretty accurate depictions of what will happen (the EURO is historically consistently more accurate in the 3-7 day range). The EURO does operate at a higher grid resolution (spits out more plots), so it would also giver a more fine-grained view this close in.

That said, playing with that tool, I'm hard pressed to get a forecast point much above 28mph or so...

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## pascaleschmidt

Rosita, tiens toi aux branches!!!

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## BBT

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 59.1W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB...27.34 INCHES

Using these coordinates and direction she will pass 47 miles south of Gustavia
latest recon dump shows max winds out 27 miles

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## TPunch42

This is just such terrible news.  So worried for our beautiful island and it's wonderful friends.  Praying for all to be safe and for our island to be spared.  The news just seems to get worse and worse.

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## waynek

> Using these coordinates and direction she will pass 47 miles south of Gustavia
> latest recon dump shows max winds out 27 miles



Is that using the current heading of 275? Or are you assuming that he will turn a little farther to the north?  The cone charts appear to be projecting a turn slightly northward so if it is the former the eye may come even closer to Gustavia.

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## BBT

Only using the current position and heading, of course there are steering currents that will effect it. It will also most likely go throw EWRC That can shift center of eye. But EWRC can also reduce winds temporarily. As we know there are no guarantees

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## Rosita

> Rosita, tiens toi aux branches!!!



il ne va pas plus avoir de branches ma chère Pascale

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## sbhonline

If Irma maintains its course lit looks like the eyewall will pass north of SBH.

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## BBT

New European model

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## jdr

The one thing in SBH's favor is that it is a fairly compact storm. Missing that eye wall would be a huge relief. It will be very bad, regardless, and I would worry about the surge in Gustavia with winds from the WNW, But a direct hit will be catastrophic. There are not a lot of good reference points for damage from Cat 5.

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## EricketLana

Prayers from Michigan for safety for all of you wonderful islanders...especially our friends on Flamands Beach.  If there is anything we can do from a distance (like phone family to let them know you're safe..or anything) please message us!

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## Aipotu

Waves already look big at Flamands (though calmer elsewhere)  http://st-barth.com/livecam7.html

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## stbartshopper

For those interested tracking the wind on the island-

https://www.windguru.cz/66663

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## Nane22

Thinking and praying for all of those on the island.  Stay safe everyone!

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## waynek

In the latest update the heading has turned a bit more north - 280 vs 275 and max sustained winds are now 185mph.  Movement has also increased slightly from 14mph to 15mph.

There is also a live webcam that pans across PJIA at http://www.mahobeachcam.com/

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## stbartshopper

For the St. Barth and St. Maarten Prefecture-

Translation

The weather forecast of these days is confirmed: Irma is a major cyclone phenomenon, Category 5. The situation will be very dangerous for all. Are expected from 200 km / h winds, with rafales (gusts) up to 280 km / H, precipitation of the order of 200 to 300 mm, and a strong cyclone wave with hollows (surge/swells)  of more than 10 meters (33 feet).
Security and solidarity are paramount, the next 48 hours are going to be difficult.
Weather monitoring levels will quickly pass at the red level (this day at noon...), then "Violet".
There are only a few hours left to ensure the safety of oneself, his family, his home and his property.
Persons living near the sea, in areas easily inondables and / or subject to sea swell:
In Saint-Barthélémy: Flemish, lorient, Saint-Jean, baie bay...
In Saint-Martin: Sandy Ground, baie bay, Grand Case, orléans district...
Absolutely must take refuge in safe places, especially in family or friends, or in dwellings on the floor.
Shelters are open:
List of shelters in Saint-Barthélémy in attachment
List of Saint Martin shelters in attachment
For people with no place to stay safe, 2 additional emergency shelters will be opened in Saint-Martin:
Collège College of cul-de-Sac (150 seats)
Savannah School City (500 places)
These hosting centres will be open from 11 pm: join them!
Officials of different religions are asked to open churches in a non-hazardous area to accommodate the population.
People who join these emergency shelters or churches are invited to bring some food, water, medicine and care for children.
For Saint-Martin, starting at noon, buses will be made available to help people who do not have a particular vehicle, to help reach the accommodation centres of the school city and the college.
Meeting points for these buses:
- Sandy Ground: Carrefour Rn7 / rue lady fish
- Quartier D ' Orléans: Neighbourhood House
- Big Case: MJC
- Orient Bay: Village roundabout
Irma is a major meteorological phenomenon, the services of the state and communities of Saint-Barthélémy and Saint-Martin are mobilizing and mobilizing.
Next release at 12
All media and people are invited to relay these safety instructions. Take care of each other, especially the weakest!!
Security and solidarity!

Les prévisions météorologiques de ces jours derniers se confirment : Irma est un phénomène cyclonique majeur, de catégorie 5. La situation sera très dangereuse pour tous. Sont attendus des vents de 200 km/h, avec des rafales pouvant atteindre 280 km/h, des précipitations de l’ordre de 200 à 300 mm, et une forte houle cyclonique avec des creux de plus de 10 m.
Sécurité et solidarité sont primordiales, les prochaines 48 h vont être difficiles.
Les niveaux de vigilance météorolo...gique passeront rapidement au niveau « rouge » (ce jour à midi), puis « violet ».
Il ne reste que quelques heures pour assurer la sécurité de soi-même, de sa famille, de sa maison et de ses biens.
Les personnes habitant au plus près de la mer, dans des zones facilement inondables et/ou soumises à la houle marine :
à Saint-Barthélémy : Flamands, Lorient, Saint-Jean, baie de Gustavia...
à Saint-Martin : Sandy Ground, Baie Nettlé, Grand Case, Quartier d’Orléans...
doivent absolument se réfugier dans des lieux sûrs, en particulier chez de la famille ou des amis, ou dans des logements situés à l’étage.
Les abris cycloniques sont ouverts :
liste des abris de Saint-Barthélémy en pièce-jointe
liste des abris des Saint-Martin en pièce-jointe
Pour les personnes n’ayant nul endroit où se mettre en sécurité, 2 centres d’hébergement d’urgence supplémentaires seront ouverts à Saint-Martin : 
collège Soualiga de Cul de Sac ( 150 places)
cité scolaire de la Savane ( 500 places)
Ces centres d’hébergement seront ouverts à partir de 11 h : rejoignez-les !
Il est demandé aux responsables des différents cultes d’ouvrir les églises situées en zone non dangereuse pour accueillir la population.
Les personnes qui rejoignent ces centres d’hébergement d’urgence ou les églises sont invitées à se munir d’un peu de nourriture, d’eau, de médicaments et de quoi occuper les enfants.
Pour Saint-Martin, à compter de ce midi, des bus seront mis à disposition pour aider les personnes qui n’ont pas de véhicule particulier, pour aider à rejoindre les centres d’hébergement de la cité scolaire et du collège Soualiga.
Points de rendez-vous pour ces bus : 
- Sandy Ground : carrefour RN7 / rue Lady fish
- Quartier d’Orléans : maison de quartier
- Grand Case : MJC
- Orient Bay : rond point du village
Irma est un phénomène météorologique majeur, les services de l’Etat et des Collectivités de Saint-Barthélémy et de Saint-Martin se mobilisent, mobilisez vous aussi.
Prochain communiqué à 12 h.
L’ensemble des médias et de la population sont invitées à relayer ces consignes de sécurité. Prenez soin les uns des autres, et en particulier des plus faibles !! 
Sécurité et solidarité !

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## BBT

> In the latest update the heading has turned a bit more north - 280 vs 275 and max sustained winds are now 185mph.  Movement has also increased slightly from 14mph to 15mph.
> 
> There is also a live webcam that pans across PJIA at http://www.mahobeachcam.com/



Sorry to hear that. Thanks for posting

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## BAM

Any northern movement is better for St Bart's correct ?

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## jdr

> Any northern movement is better for St Bart's correct ?



The 5 PM NHC forecast track takes it right between SXM and SBH. I don't recall if that is further north or south than the previous update.

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## Chip

> The 5 PM NHC forecast track takes it right between SXM and SBH. I don't recall if that is further north or south than the previous update.



over the past 24 hr the track unfortunately has moved closer and closer to SBH; the eye will now travel just offshore to the north of the island.  On Sunday, it was north of Anguilla.  If you look at the big island visible from Flamands (Ile Chevreau), the latest course has the eye hitting the north end of that, and just skimming the north end of La Tortue.  The eye is 45 miles wide

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## slesgold

Very scary!

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## bpski

FWIW hurricane aircraft just recorded 192 mph surface wind.  May be updated to 195 mph.  This would be the strongest in Atlantic recorded history.  Essentially a f-4 tornado many miles wide.  Latest track is looking quite possible for direct hit on 
sbh.  (Updated, still 185 from nhc but 192 was recorded from hurricane hunter aircraft)

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## italyhound

We are very much thinking of everyone on the island right now.  Stay safe.

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## belinda

In St Jean and having a problem checking into the forum for news as there's too many people on. Do you think for those who are not on the island but are keeping an eye on us and sending best wishes could check in sporadically rather than staying logged in. That way, for us here we can keep in touch... Don't mean to offend anyone just looking out for us all and trying to keep ahead of the news and stay safe. Thank you

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## waynek

I am guessing that the slowness isn't caused by too many people on this forum page, especially since statically sitting on the page doesn't use any bandwidth.  I am guessing it is thousands of people around the world logged into webcams on Youtube, etc that want to see how the storm looks.

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## belinda

It's not slow I couldn't connect for more than 45 min. It said the resource is out reached its limit, try again at another time. You could be right though

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## andynap

I got the same message. Don't open a new page. Go back to a previous post.

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## belinda

Thanks Andy, didn't mean to offend anyone. Just concerned about what's to come..

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## andynap

> Thanks Andy, didn't mean to offend anyone. Just concerned about what's to come..



Believe me you are not offending anyone. Everyone is so anxious and helpless here. Be safe and continue to post as long as you can so we know what's going on.

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## rivertrash

What is the difference between GMT and Mountain Time?

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## waynek

Assuming that you are on DST that would be -6.  Otherwise -7.

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## belinda

Do we have an estimated time of when the worst should be arriving

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## BBT

> Do we have an estimated time of when the worst should be arriving



At 8:00 PM NHC plot she was 156 miles away moving at 280 degrees at 13mph that would mean the center would be nearest to  Gustavia at around 8 am. Using those coordinates I appears it will pass north of Nevis St. Kitts and Saba and south of St. Bart's. There is a recon plane in the center now. The radar is beginning to show sign of the Eye Wall Replacement Cycle which can cause wobbling and variations of wind velocity.

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## zp

6 to 8 am wednesday will see worst flooding according to the bulletin isued at 5 pm today (tuesday) by meteo france

noaa forecasts that tropical storm winds will start at 2am.  Seems consistent with meteo france, as winds will likely increase after that from tropicsl storm to hurricane force.

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## andynap

I just saw a post from Radio St barth for people who are seaside on St Jean and Lorient to evacuate now and go to the shelters.

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## zp

Meteo france also says to be extremely cautious when things will get quiet expectedly between 8 and 10 am wednesday. This will be the eye of the storm, a temporary situation which will soon followed by renewed violent winds. No one should leave shelters at that time.

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## belinda

Winds are picking up here in St Jean.

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## zp

Metro france just issued their new advisory.  Worse winds between 6 am and 12 noon wednesday. Up to 300km/h at that time.  Brief quiet period ("the eye") sometimes between 8 and 10 am. 

http://www.meteofrance.gp/integratio..._iles_nord.pdf

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## debd

On the "tune in radio" app, you can listen to Radio St. Barth.  At the moment, they are playing call ins.

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## rivertrash

> Assuming that you are on DST that would be -6.  Otherwise -7.



Thanks.

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## WJSM5

Planning a trip in November to help all those in need. Stay safe.

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## candyed

Pray that our friends seek higher ground and find safe shelter 
Ed Bernard

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## jdr

By all reports, it is a very compact storm and the strong winds do not extend out very far. With the WNW jog, SBH could escape the eye wall, but SXM appears in line to take a direct hit, so the airport there could be in very bad shape for a while.

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## WJSM5

BARA9 a NOAA station in Barbuda is showing a drastic drop in air pressure and sustained winds of 50 knots. The islands radio station just went down as well.

Please keep in mind Barbuda is 70 miles from St Barths - both along the direct path of Irma.

Edit 1:02 am EST - Barbuda sustained winds are 80mph with gusts up to 110 mph. Pressure - 1003.7

Edit 1:10 am EST - Same Buoy BARA9 reporting winds 93knots with gusts to 114 knots (107/131mph)

Edit 1:19 EST - All signals from BARA9 have been lost.

Edit 1:24 EST Wind Speed at Lorient have maxed out Meteo-SBH's systems. They are most likely well above 100 km/h. Pressure has dropped to 998.20.

Edit 1:29 EST Pressure has dropped to 916mb. BARA9 has come back online with sustained winds of 94kts with gusts up to 135 knots (107/155 mph). Pressure continues to fall at BARA9 meaning this is not even the worst of the storm. The pressure is below 900mb (27.40in) which is considered highly dangerous. This pressure also continues to fall at -2.07in.

Edit 1:46 EST - BARA9 has most likely been destroyed. No longer registering wind speeds, however pressure continues to fall 27.20.

Edit 1:49 EST - SBH Lorient Wind Speeds - 96.5 KMH. Pressure is beginning to fall faster. Outer bands will begin to make an impact within 30 minutes.

Edit 1:54 EST - BARA9 has been completely destroyed. All signals have been lost. There has been no communication from the small island of 1200 people. Everyone, please pray for these people.

Edit 2:00 EST - The NHC released a statement that the eye has directly crossed over Barbuda. So far the maxed confirmed sustained wind speeds have been 185mph. Unfortunately, the storm is moving WNW which may lead to a direct hit with St Barths. The island can expect similar conditions. It is also possible the storm moves north fast enough that SBH misses the eye. There are reports that the whole island of Barbuda being completely destroyed on Twitter.

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## belinda

Winds pretty bad in St Jean at 1.30am. Still have power. Fingers crossed it stays that way. Keep hunkered down everyone and ride this out safe.

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## WJSM5

Belinda, did you notify the State Department that you are abroad? In the event that the airport is destroyed or inoperable, you may want to make that call now knowing that cell towers may be destroyed. The US government is preparing to send aid and rescue citizens stranded in the next coming days.

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## max90

Praying for SB...please provide updates when you can. Looks like eye of storm will be over SB in an hour or 2. Be safe everyone!

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## belinda

Thank you for the information. I did not notify them. I guess I can only contact someone in the am. Hanging in here. Winds are very bad here in St Jean...

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## debd

> Thank you for the information. I did not notify them. I guess I can only contact someone in the am. Hanging in here. Winds are very bad here in St Jean...




Belinda, here is the link to register on line.

https://step.state.gov/STEPMobile/Default.aspx

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## stbartshopper

Belinda-
Stay safe!
D and D how are you both?

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## Rosita

It's 4:00 am 
we are in the middle of the storm 
things are bad outside ..lot of wind 
just hope in couple hours it will not a desaster

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## BBT

> It's 4:00 am 
> we are in the middle of the storm 
> things are bad outside ..lot of wind 
> just hope in couple hours it will not a desaster



SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 61.8W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB...26.99 INCHES
The center of the eye  should be 30 miles from SBH. It will Pass north of SBH  by only a few miles. It's a direct hit for our beloved SBH

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## BBT

The 5 am report would put IRMAs center at 12.1 miles from the easternmost point of SBH

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## BBT

5am 9/6/17

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## Izzy



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## chris83

Some photos here already

https://www.facebook.com/veronique.v...25?pnref=story

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## bkeats

So looking at the 5:00 am position and speed, the storm should have hit now. Hoping for the best for everyone on the island. Been through a few hurricanes but nothing close to a 5. Must be scary down there. Good luck everyone.

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## chris83

Quick analysis of the photos.
   This is the south side of the island (and a bit protected by the mountain)
   Roofs are still in place on houses....
   Water up to the first floor (over 4 meters)..this when the eye was crossing
   wind is back so more awful stuff can happen
   I pray for all people on the northern side of the island

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## bkeats

Chris, are you referring to the photos in the facebook link? It says the photos are of Gustavia. Looking west across the harbor towards the Gendarmerie from what I see. Everything on the ground level is flooded. That's some devastation going on. Its terrible to think that a bit over a month ago we were walking right there in that top photo.

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## chris83

I am sadly talking of those photos... it's Gustavia,no doubt.
  Some videos are coming out on twitter.
  Anybody having links to new photos or videos...please post..please don't post unnecessary stuff at this stage

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## WJSM5

Ok apparently not a live feed but for those who want to see the progression of the conditions it may be helpful. - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hG-GpHPkBoM

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## BBT



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## chris83

> There is still a live feed coming from the island - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hG-GpHPkBoM



Please delete your post...this is fake and old stuff...it's day light in St barth...and this webcam went down hours ago
Please just post new stuff.All webcams are gone (Gustavia,Flamand and so on):Post links to videos or photos made this morning ONLY

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## Aipotu

three or four of the web cams on st-brath.com appear to be still up but very very very grainy images...can occasionally make out the palm in the Rade de Gustavia one

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## zp

Bruno Magras was on radio saint barth this morning.  He went out during the eye of the storm and reported after. Said "tremendous devastation to vegetation and habitations, but thankfully no calls for help to public safety had been registered". 

Phones still seemed to be up, somewhat.

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## WJSM5

> Please delete your post...this is fake and old stuff...it's day light in St barth...and this webcam went down hours ago
> Please just post new stuff.All webcams are gone (Gustavia,Flamand and so on):Post links to videos or photos made this morning ONLY



Many of the cameras appear to be still up as Aipotu said. You won't get a whole lot of light in a CAT 5 hurricane.

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## chris83

It is a loop on all these webcams....it is full daylight in St Barth now...Check the Flamand webcam to see how the works.
   I am sorry for being so direct...All my friends are on the island today.
  As mentioned,check twitter for new videos...Nothing yet on Instagram,
   Kikietmo posted SMS he received ...Seems it's apocalypse in Lorient (north side of the island )

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## waynek

> three or four of the web cams on st-brath.com appear to be still up but very very very grainy images...can occasionally make out the palm in the Rade de Gustavia one



Those images appear to be stale from many hours ago.  As Chris says above - it is daylight in SBH now so there is no way they are showing live feeds.  Some of the other photos/videos appearing on Facebook and Twitter show some of the devastation in the dull morning light.

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## chris83

New video (with full daylight)
https://www.facebook.com/carole.grea...15csKbpfHWghTM

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## chris83

Some updates here ..( a new video in Gustavia now) 

https://www.facebook.com/groups/470390546675788/

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## chris83

It's 8.43 AM in SBH..They are now facing the tail of IRMA...
  not much news to expect for next 2 hours as they bunker down again
   All my thoughts are with them

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## KevinS



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## WJSM5

Looks like it says:

>Fire station is flooded with 1m of water. The fire engines won't start.
>Damage to many homes
>All of the power is out. The main power station is not operable.

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## KevinS

I understand it about the same as you do.

Fire station flooded with 1 meter of water, personnel taking refuge on the upper floor.

A number of damaged houses (roofs).

Total electrical blackout, EDF power station (unusable?  I don't know the word inutilisable)

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## waynek

It looks like SXM may have more damage than SBH - there are reports saying that the four most solid buildings on SXM have been destroyed.

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## zp

Inutilisable= "can't be used" (litterally: "can't be utilized" or "not utilizable"). 

presumably flooded.

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## JimH21111

Heavy damage at SXM.

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## JimH21111

Gustavia Harbor

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## jayhawkgirl

Yikes! That's a lot of water.  
Those boats are in bad shape too!
Thanks for posting the picture!





> Gustavia Harbor

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## bkeats

That picture leaves me fearing the worst. There's a boat practically resting on the gazebo at the back of the harbor. I tried to zoom in on the Swedish clock tower and there looks like there is damage to the roof there. Just incredible. Now I'm worrying about friends in PR and based on the current track for Irma, my family in Florida.

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## WJSM5

Looks like they are pretty much out of the storm. Now we have to hope and pray everyone survived and is safe.

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## waynek

> Looks like they are pretty much out of the storm. Now we have to hope and pray everyone survived and is safe.



And that we don't get another hit from Jose in 3-4 days.

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## WJSM5

Not sure if anyone has posted/seen this - *​*https://weather.com/storms/hurricane...s-under-irma-0

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